Category: If not Biden series

Near Panic Ensues . . .

“[A recent poll] triggered another round of agonizing among Democrats over whether Biden should have passed on a run for a second term – even if no realistic challenger for the nomination has emerged in a new generation of the party.” CNN Politics commenting on an early November New York Times/Siena College poll

For many reasons many wonder whether President Biden has the “right stuff” to defeat probable GOP presidential candidate Trump. His age (soon to be 81) and mental acuity are the most publicized concerns among many who think he ought to step aside (although Trump has lately been viewed as having similar electoral drawbacks, not to mention 91 pending criminal charges).

Biden’s poor performance in an early November New York Times/Siena College poll shows Trump with a lead in five out of six crucial battleground states. Among scaredy-cat Democrats this has caused signs of panic and visits to the wailing wall. Moreover, his approval rating has dropped from his approximate average as of March 13, 2023 to 38.5% (with 55.7% disapproval) on November 8, according to ABC’s 538 polling monitor:

At first glance, this seems a terrible place to be within one year of election day. However, 38.5% is not his lowest approval rating; he was at 37.9% in early July 2022. As well, his disapproval score is not his highest at 55.7%; he was at 56.2% in early July 2022. Scant solace if you’re worried, I’d agree.

Nonetheless, since FDR, eight presidents have suffered lower approval ratings than Biden, notably, Harry Truman (lowest ever) at 22%, and Trump at 34% (note, polling occurred on January 15, 2021, while he was still president, but ten weeks after he LOST the 2020 election and nine days following January 6th when his MAGA “troops” attempted to overturn the electoral college vote). Nice finish, eh? In any event, historically, Biden’s present 38.5% approval rating is by no means outside the norm. Summing up: eight of the 14 presidents from FDR through Barack Obama “earned” lower approval ratings than Joe Biden has today. So, perhaps, less reason to panic?

At Times Panic Is Appropriate

RFK Jr.’s entry into the presidential steeplechase as an independent was first considered an insane gambit. He has lately emerged as a contender or spoiler as well, despite his status as a rigid anti-vaxxer, a 9/11 conspiracy theorist, a stubborn position that there ought to be virtually no limits to free speech, and other ideas that border on MAGA extremism. However, the same New York Times/Siena College poll that deflated Biden’s job approval , provided RFK Jr. quite a boost in his among Americans aged 18 to 44:

“[A]ccording to the results of the New York Times/Siena College poll, one quarter of 3,662 registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin said they’d go for RFK Jr. in a hypothetical matchup between him, Biden, and Trump. And among voters under 45? He beats both the 45th and 46th presidents.” [emphasis added]

Although a debate rages as to whether RFK Jr. will draw more votes away from Trump or Biden, (or, perhaps, neither), seismic movements in the 18-44 traditionally Democratic voting bloc appear. Finally, biting at Biden’s heels, Jill Stein threw her biodegradable hat into the ring yesterday. Cornel West is also in the race. And pesky Joe Manchin is considering a presidential run as well. Others may lurk as yet unseen.

If approval ratings, and “who would you vote for today” questions are not dispositive measures, especially one-year out from election day 2024, they nevertheless have heightened the swearing and swooning of many Democrats everywhere.

“. . . even if no realistic challenger . . . has emerged”

“We have to be careful about predictions, even about yesterday.” Michael V. Matheron

Predictions about tomorrow and tomorrows are dangerous (who thought George Santos would be thinking about reelection?). At its outset, this post quoted a CNN article that asserted Biden’s age, acuity, and, especially, the results of the NYT/Sienna poll left Democrats “agonizing” over whether Biden ought to step aside “even if no realistic challenger for the nomination has emerged in a new generation of the party.” I recognize poppycock when I see it and CNN’s judgment is covered in poppycock. This, and future posts in this series, will, I hope, dispel that CNN conclusion about possible Dem presidential challengers. There are many “new generation” potential Democratic presidential candidates who are eminently “realistic.” Each has her or his talents that recommend them. Here, in the weeks ahead, we’ll have a look at some of them, for example, Kentucky’s Governor Andy Beshear, Michigan’s Governor Gretchen Whitmer, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York, and some longshots, like RFK Jr. and Bernie Sanders, and some surprises, like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

One final note: The deadline for Democratic primary challengers are fast upon us and by the end of November deadlines in Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, South Carolina, and others will have passed. So, to mount a primary challenge to President Biden, time flies . . .