Category: Analysis

Trump Suddenly Embraces Impeachment . . . of a Federal Judge

Michael Matheron1 Comment

“Public officials … regrettably have engaged in recent attempts to intimidate judges — for example, suggesting political bias in the judge’s adverse rulings without a credible basis for such allegations. Attempts to intimidate judges for their rulings in cases are inappropriate and should be vigorously opposed. Public officials certainly have a right to criticize the work of the judiciary, but they should be mindful that intemperance in their statements when it comes to judges may prompt dangerous reactions by others.”

Chief Justice John Roberts, New Year’s Eve message, December 31, 2024.

This morning, Trump took once again to Truth Social for an exquisitely intelligent broadside aimed at the chief judge of the Washington, DC U.S. District Court, Judge James Boasberg for halting his efforts to remove Venezuelan migrants using the Alien Powers Act of 1798 which was intended to to resist a foreign invasion during a time of declared war. Needless to say, we are not at war with Venezuela. This upset our president who is set upon complete capture of the federal government within himself, a monarch in (impatient) waiting. He had this to say:

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@realDonaldTrump

This Radical Left Lunatic of a Judge, a troublemaker and agitator who was sadly appointed by Barack Hussein Obama, was not elected President – He didn’t WIN the popular VOTE (by a lot!), he didn’t WIN ALL SEVEN SWING STATES, he didn’t WIN 2,750 to 525 Counties, HE DIDN’T WIN ANYTHING! I WON FOR MANY REASONS, IN AN OVERWHELMING MANDATE, BUT FIGHTING ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION MAY HAVE BEEN THE NUMBER ONE REASON FOR THIS HISTORIC VICTORY. I’m just doing what the VOTERS wanted me to do. This judge, like many of the Crooked Judges’ I am forced to appear before, should be IMPEACHED!!! WE DON’T WANT VICIOUS, VIOLENT, AND DEMENTED CRIMINALS, MANY OF THEM DERANGED MURDERERS, IN OUR COUNTRY. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!! Mar 18, 2025, 9:05 AM

Trump’s beef? (1) Judge Boasberg was appointed by President Obama, (2) Judge Boasberg did not perform better that Trump in the 2024 election, (3) Judge Boasberg is a crooked judge, “a troublemaker and agitator,” and, as a consequence, the judge ought to be impeached, primarily for doing his job and interpreting the law in a manner consistent with precedent.

The rule of law laid down in judicial impeachment cases has been that judges cannot be removed for decisions that the president disagrees with. Impeachment of judges is an unlikely event in American history: 15 judges have been impeached, 8 convicted and removed. Impeachment and removal has ranged from intoxication on the bench, to abandoning the office and joining the Confederacy, to various types of corruption, and to perjury and income tax evasion, all of which arguably fit the normal impeachment standard of high crimes and misdemeanors for executive branch impeachments.*

* [But see this for more complete background: within the judicial branch “good behavior” clause of Article 3, there may be some argument that Trumpists may make to the effect that Judge Boasberg violated the good behavior clause (believe it or not) by simply ruling against Trump. The background of this good behavior clause makes it unrealistic to believe that such an argument would be considered as anything other than frivolous, however.]

In any event, the important conclusion in this crucial case is that Trump’s reaction shows clearly (1) his complete lack of basic understanding of the American constitutional system, particularly the judiciary, and (2) his knee jerk reaction to pulverize the reputation of any judge that disciplines him, (3) his utter contempt – utter demented contempt – for law, in general, and anything untoward that affects him adversely, and (4) his descent into uncontrolled all caps madness unlike anything witnessed in his first presidential term.

This battle between Trump administration and the courts represents, potentially, the most important on display since without Trump accepting court rulings the American government loses its principal foundation, judicial supremacy in judicial matters. Absent that, the jungle awaits . . .

__________________

UPDATE: Just prior to my posting this it’s been reported that in a very unusual pronouncement, the Supreme Court Chief Justice, John Roberts, issued the following:

“For more than two centuries, it has been established that impeachment is not an appropriate response to disagreement concerning a judicial decision. The normal appellate review process exists for that purpose.”

Given the highly unusual statement by the Chief Justice, its import cannot be underestimated. We’ll likely see, in its wake, MAGA world completely “cancel” the Chief Justice, and Trump say something that makes the situation worse.

This is important. Stay tuned.

Chuck Schumer Needs a Spine Transplant . . .

Michael Matheron1 Comment

Senate Minority Leader showed up in his invertebrate form for the battle over the GOP-led continuing resolution to fund the government through most of the remaining year. He has often railed about the possible collapse of democracy under Trump’s presidency, loudly trashing the GOP for their draconian plans to anyone who has a microphone. Nonetheless, actual tactical follow-up to his righteous indignation has rarely followed. He slithers away from a real fight and by now represents the ghost of a Democratic party long hobbled by bipartisanship and, frankly, fear of incivility, a decades old Democratic disability. His latest was his codging together enough Democratic senators’ votes to pass the GOP continuing resolution granting Trump with a carte blanche for chaos for the rest of the fiscal year. It’s what happens when you bring a Schumer to a knife fight.

MSNBC’s The Weekend‘s Symone Sanders-Townsend laid it on in her inimitable style:

“In 2024, Democrats ran on warnings that Trump was going to destroy democracy, and now that he and his team are very much in the process of doing just that, these same politicians are questioning whether or not to stand up to him and his party at one of the first opportunities they have to meaningfully do so. The only opportunity, I would add, there’s not another option for Senate or Democratic or Senate Democrats or House Democrats to effectively push back. This was it! They blew it! The Democratic Tea Party was born the same day that Chuck Schumer took to that podium to read that very well-crafted statement that told us he folded like a paper napkin.”

Does the Senate Democratic caucus have enough senators with spines to (finally) do what is needed and dethrone their minority leader? It’s long past time to do so. Pick a fighter, for example, Arizona’s Mark Kelly, Maryland’s Chris Van Hollen, Massachusetts’ Elizabeth Warren, or Rhode Island’s Sheldon Whitehouse. Put a tiger in your tank, and ditch the civility.

We Told You So, No. 002

Michael Matheron1 Comment

This is the second in what will be a regular feature (see our first post here). It’s based upon what is known as the original position fallacy:

A situation in which a character promotes an action, revolution or social system that harms or will harm other people, under the assumption that it will not harm them. They will invariably discover that they were wrong, with the double whammy of knowing they supported the measure that caused their suffering when they thought it would happen to ‘somebody else’

This, of course, was predictable for the average MAGA voter, they were warned many times that Trump & Company had no true regard for their own supporters (except their mega wealthy cabal). Cheering on all of Trump’s plans the MAGA crowd were looking forward to the firing huge swathes of our federal workforce according to the Project 2025 playbook. And without thought of consequences these MAGAs failed to take notice that there are many MAGA adherents in that federal workforce. Thinking things through is not one of the characteristics of the entire MAGA movement, from top to bottom.

So, now, just seven weeks into the Re-Trumping of America, thousands of federal workers have been summarily laid off and RIFed. Those MAGAs who have been directly or indirectly harmed by this have learned the lesson of the original position fallacy. And more lessons will be forthcoming to MAGAs who disproportionately rely on programs being axed by the GOP/MAGA, for instance, Medicaid, administration interference with Social Security and Medicare, and the decimation of the Veterans Administration.

So, here’s is today’s example of buyer’s regret, courtesy of Twitter/X poster Tim Hannon’s retweet of a February 6th cris de coeur from MAGA town:

The Man Is Insane, Trump’s New Moves Against Canada

Michael Matheron1 Comment

Trump’s latest Truth Social rant is among the more unhinged of both of his presidencies. It showcases grand mal psychological instability as well as a mind suffering peak megalomania while demonstrating rank stupidity. The original Dunning Kruger starting point.

For example, neither sane nor savvy is to send out this mentally disoriented message into the teeth of a financial market downturn. But who is there in the administration – a collection of incompetent conspiracy operatives – to stop him? The markets were down sharply this morning already prior to his announcement. We’ll see how they end the day – no predicting market players who may be so confused that they signal they like Trump’s thinking . . . Go figure.

In any event, here’s his maximally deranged rant, a rant of many levels and promising many catastrophes, all based on utter tariff stupidity and unearned bravado, and incredibly brazen threats to “absorb” Canada as out “cherished” 51st state:

“Based on Ontario, Canada, placing a 25% Tariff on “Electricity” coming into the United States, I have instructed my Secretary of Commerce to add an ADDITIONAL 25% Tariff, to 50%, on all STEEL and ALUMINUM COMING INTO THE UNITED STATES FROM CANADA, ONE OF THE HIGHEST TARIFFING NATIONS ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD. This will go into effect TOMORROW MORNING, March 12th.

Also, Canada must immediately drop their Anti-American Farmer Tariff of 250% to 390% on various U.S. dairy products, which has long been considered outrageous.

I will shortly be declaring a National Emergency on Electricity within the threatened area. This will allow the U.S to quickly do what has to be done to alleviate this abusive threat from Canada.

If other egregious, long time Tariffs are not likewise dropped by Canada, I will substantially increase, on April 2nd, the Tariffs on Cars coming into the U.S. which will, essentially, permanently shut down the automobile manufacturing business in Canada. Those cars can easily be made in the USA! Also, Canada pays very little for National Security, relying on the United States for military protection. We are subsidizing Canada to the tune of more than 200 Billion Dollars a year. WHY???

This cannot continue. The only thing that makes sense is for Canada to become our cherished Fifty First State. This would make all Tariffs, and everything else, totally disappear. Canadians taxes will be very substantially reduced, they will be more secure, militarily and otherwise, than ever before, there would no longer be a Northern Border problem, and the greatest and most powerful nation in the World will be bigger, better and stronger than ever — And Canada will be a big part of that. The artificial line of separation drawn many years ago will finally disappear, and we will have the safest and most beautiful Nation anywhere in the World — And your brilliant anthem, “O Canada,” will continue to play, but now representing a GREAT and POWERFUL STATE within the greatest Nation that the World has ever seen!”

We’ll wait and see about today’s financial markets’ results, but realistically, I expect continuing losses throughout the day, unless traders are struck dumb. . . and daft.

Later on I’ll have a look at the other unhinged ideas and threats he introduced in his Truth Social post. . .

Trump Bumbles and Fumbles After Shocking Oval Office Zelensky Meeting

Michael Matheron1 Comment

After scolding Ukraine’s Zelensky in the Oval Office and then punishing Ukraine by cutting off U.S. intelligence data, threatening to remove thousands of Ukrainians from the U.S., and stalling military assistance, Trump is now, just an hour ago, threatening Russia with sanctions for waging an aggressive bombing campaign.

Yesterday, he posted this on TruthSocial:

“Based on the fact that Russia is absolutely ‘pounding’ Ukraine on the battlefield right now, I am strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire and FINAL SETTLEMENT AGREEMENT ON PEACE IS REACHED. To Russia and Ukraine, get to the table right now, before it is too late. Thank you!!!”

This stepped up aggression by Russia is a case of cause-effect based upon Trump’s own recent treatment of Ukraine, the literal cutting off of most aid to Ukraine following the February 28th Oval Office fiasco. Basically, Trump’s post-meeting abandonment of Ukraine made it possible for Russia to do the Ukrainian battlefield “pounding” by removing, for example, Ukraine’s access to U.S. military surveillance thereby allowing Russia to immediately lambaste Ukraine at will. Cause-Effect. When will his madcap foreign policies do the same, and how dangerous will be the result?

Why the Ultra-Wealthy Need More Tax Breaks

Michael Matheron1 Comment

Today, CNN reported: “When it comes to the rise of multimillionaires, the United States is leading the charge, a new report found. The number of high-net worth individuals — or those with assets worth more than $10 million — rose 4.4% worldwide in 2024, to 2,341,378, but jumped 5.2% in North America, according to the annual Wealth Report by global real estate consultancy Knight Frank. The U.S. is now home to almost 40% of the world’s super rich, the report estimates — nearly double the share that resides in China, the region with the next highest contingent of wealthy individuals.”

The report points out as well that “Future wealth creation, especially in the ultra-wealthy (US$100 million+) segment, is likely to be subject to a more activist regulatory and tax response.” In plain English, wealth growth, under the Trump administration, will likely result in an “activist regulatory and tax response,” i.e., a super-wealthy person’s way of saying, “More tax breaks and less regulations!! For us!”

And, of course, being in a competitive society, the growth rate of super-wealthy families must hold on to its leadership position. Rooting against them would be Un-American!! The chart below shows just how hard it is to stay in the top 1%; there are so many 99%ers grasping cravenly at their fortunes: 85 million other families, versus 2.5 million super-wealthy. A very unfair fight. How is it that such a small contingent has been able to dominate so many millions of families? Hmmmmm…

USAID Attacked Relentlessly

Michael Matheron1 Comment

The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) has been oppressively besieged since the arrival of Elon Musk, Trump’s hatchet man. One of the results among the many agencies under attack is the stifling of public communications, including shutting information about the agency on the agency websites. Presently, USAID’s website consists of one page which sounds like a death knell, and it very likely is. Note the final sentence, “Thank you for your service.” Indeed. . .

On Friday, February 7, 2025, at 11:59 pm (EST) all USAID direct hire personnel will be placed on administrative leave globally, with the exception of designated personnel responsible for mission-critical functions, core leadership and specially designated programs. Essential personnel expected to continue working will be informed by Agency leadership by Thursday, February 6, at 3:00pm (EST).

For USAID personnel currently posted outside the United States, the Agency, in coordination with missions and the Department of State, is currently preparing a plan, in accordance with all applicable requirements and laws, under which the Agency would arrange and pay for return travel to the United States within 30 days and provide for the termination of PSC and ISC contracts that are not determined to be essential. The Agency will consider case-by-case exceptions and return travel extensions based on personal or family hardship, mobility or safety concerns, or other reasons. For example, the Agency will consider exceptions based on the timing of dependents’ school term, personal or familial medical needs, pregnancy, and other reasons. Further guidance on how to request an exception will be forthcoming.

Thank you for your service.

Trump’s Tariff Grift: Canada

Michael MatheronLeave a comment

Canada, Oh Canada

Yesterday, Trump levied a worldwide 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports to the U.S.! Yes, the entire world. Most notably Canada, Mexico, both of them our longstanding allies and fellow NAFTA partners. It happens; it happened. It affects 21 Million tons of steel products; our 2023 supply of steel sourced in the U.S. was approximately 90 Million tons, including flat-rolled, mini milled, and tubular. Imported steel goods were, therefore, 19%, a significant amount. Below, I’ll have a look at the Canadian impact, but first:

The chart below shows the world share of steel imports for 2023:

As far as aluminum is concerned, Canadian imports (2024) provided the lion’s share, outpacing all other countries.

The total amount of all imports vs. steel and aluminum imports is illustrated to the left (2024 data). The wedge shows the amount we import worldwide, Canada’s portion of the wedge is smaller than the total, of course.

Thus, Trump’s targeted steel tariffs should have but a moderate effect on overall prices, but a significant impact on steel prices, but a larger impact on aluminum. And these products are not in general, final products, they are intermediate, used in the production of final products. The price increases that will occur during Trump’s tariffs will be passed along to the American public, as higher prices, and will contribute to overall inflation, particularly in auto production costs and consumer sales of the final products. And recall how maniacally worked up Trump was about “Biden’s inflation,” which was brief and directly related to COVID’s effects. Inflation now is running between 2.5 and 3%, within the Federal Reserve’s target rate. So, what does our daft president do to bring prices down as he promised his MAGAs he would do on “day one”? Well. he slaps on tariffs – worldwide – which will accelerate inflation. Of course. Indeed.

Tariff Man!

In truth, tariffs are a mixed bag, and often they do not meet the economic objectives of the country imposing tariffs, for example, aiding the development of home grown industries. Trump, however, has since his early middle age, not gotten the message. On the record, he famously said, “Tariff is the most beautiful word in the dictionary,” and dubbed himself “Tariff Man.” He thinks its an economic nuclear weapon.

Why? He is so dull he does not accept the axiom that tariffs almost always cause price inflation! He insists that tariffs are paid by the tariffed counties; they are not, they’re paid by the importer, and then passed along through the production pipeline as a price increase at the point of sale to consumers. Where is the crater sized hole in his brain? Certainly, he’s heard from many that he is dead wrong, but who in his present administration dares tell him? Could son Barron convince him, he’s probably had some high school level economics? No, Trump is so self-destructively certain and goofily confident that he’s ultimately wholly irrational, across the board. Reasoning with him is, in any practical sense, impossible. There’s no clear definition of how addled he is. But it’s a lot.

So, I expect his tariffs will backfire as the public and business interests (such as the automobile industry) speak loud and clear. Trump will likely try to periodically soften the blow to price inflation by suddenly reducing them, and by striking deals that exempt certain industries from the tariffs, such as agriculture and automobiles. This, of course will defeat the reason for tariffs. He’ll play at tariffs like a boy with a yoyo – up and down, in and out. In doing so he’ll cause massive economic uncertainty that may paralyze whole industries trying to plan their business choices. And this level of uncertainty is anathema to producing a stable economy, and stability is the holy grail of commerce. Trump’s yoyo grift is the tool of a boy, not a man. Certainly not a tariff man . . .

Canada Tariffs – Democratic Senators Introduce Legislation to Curb Trump’s Enthusiasm for Tariffs

Michael Matheron1 Comment

Two days before Trump placed a 25% tariff on nearly all goods from Canada (he placed a 10% tariff on energy and energy resources), Senators Coons (DE) and Kaine (VA) introduced legislation sure to raise Trump’s blood pressure. It’s a bill to restrict a president’s authority to impose tariffs on allies and free trade agreement partners by requiring the consent of Congress. Presently, presidents’ tariff authority is so strong as to be arguably plenary.

Here’s the joint statement by Coons and Kaine. Note that it was introduced two days before the tariffs were imposed. Chances for passage in a MAGA dominated House? Very iffy. . .

Tariffs [2025-01-31] Kaine & Coons Introduce Legislation to Require.._Download

Trump’s Tariff on Canada – A Shot Glass Example of Canadian Retaliation

Michael Matheron1 Comment

The Liquor Control Board of Ontario quickly addressed Trump’s 25% tariff on Canadian products, one of our staunchest allies. It is also a major trading partner from whom we imported $462 Billion in 2023, the year with the most complete data. Here’s what we imported, second only to Mexico. So, we’re talking 25% tax on American importers, that’s a very high tariff rate, which due to NAFTA, was approximately 2%. Now, we’re in a new world where an inept businessman is permitted to impose tariffs willy-nilly.

In any event, here’s an example of how quickly the Canadian Province of Ontario replied to Trump today. (The Liquor Control Board of Ontario (LCBO) is a government agency. It is a Crown agency that is owned by the Ontario provincial government. The LCBO is responsible for the sale and distribution of alcohol in Ontario.). The Premier of Ontario, the wonderfully cantankerous Doug Ford posted this on Twitter/X:

Assuredly, more will follow, and recall that the automobile business is a tripartite arrangement among us, Canada and Mexico. We may see price increases on cars very soon (like tomorrow), So, if you can, buy a new car today. . .