Given Iowa’s caucuses results last night Trump’s supercharged self confidence seems fully intact and running on all cylinders. He garnered 51% of the vote and stung the other three candidates, causing one, Vivek Ramaswamy, to bid adieu to the primaries, and, of course, to immediately endorse Trump. Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley finished well behind, but stay in the race with little but extravagant hope to guide them. Mostly, though, the media and polling analysts have written them off.
Not Dead Yet?
Nonetheless, looked at more closely, a case can be made that the three losing candidates’ performance conceals a possibility of nearly realistic hope. Consider, for example, that the trio of DeSantis-Haley-Ramaswamy captured 49% of the vote (while the other candidates threw in another 1%.)
Additionally, note the delegate count: Trump 20, D-H-R 20, a numerical tie. As weak a case as this is for calling the results promising for remaining Trump contenders, this does demonstrate that even Iowa Republicans are not buying into Trump as totally as many pundits want us to believe. And Iowa is indeed a Trump bastion. Of course, Ramaswamy accounted for 7% of the vote and won three delegates, and then promptly endorsed Trump. It’s inescapable that the majority of his voters will benefit Trump going forward. Yet, to me, Trump’s Iowa margin of victory seems weaker than is being heralded by much of the media.
Example: A pre-caucuses poll, the NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll, taken from January 2-14 of 705 likely Iowa caucus goers bears consideration. It asked caucus attendees about the elephant in the room: the effect a criminal conviction would have upon their support for Trump in the November election. Here’s the results:
- 61% of likely Iowa GOP voters polled said their support would remain
- 19% said they’d be more likely to support Trump if convicted (amazing, eh?!)
- 18% said they’d be less likely to support him in a general election if he’s convicted
That 18% is a large enough faction to swing an election. As for the 19% who would increase their support for Trump if convicted I take that to mean they already support Trump but not strongly. This could be true for the 18% as well, but that 18% would be moving away from a Trump vote in significant numbers, not toward him.
Additionally, the DeSantis-Haley factor may result in previous Trump supporters abandoning Trump in November. The same poll cited above revealed sheds some light on this:
- Among Haley’s supporters, 56% say a possible conviction of Trump doesn’t matter to their Nov. 2024 vote choice, but 41% say it would make them less likely to back Trump.
- By comparison, 70% of DeSantis supporters say it wouldn’t matter to them if Trump was convicted, versus 26% who say it will make them less likely to support the former president.
- And among Trump’s supporters, 58% say a conviction wouldn’t matter — and an additional 35% say a conviction would make them more likely to support their favored candidate, i.e. 93%
That leaves very few who would abandon Trump; they are radically decided, so don’t expect defections. Both DeSantis and Haley supporters are more diverse and, well, sane, with 26% (DeSantis) and 41% (Haley) less likely to vote for a criminally convicted Trump. Those voters represent a large bloc of lost GOP Trump voters, particularly Haley voters.
If Haley and DeSantis voters remain independently minded – even if their favored candidates drop out of the race – Trump’s lost support will be enough to truly sting. In fact, the poll shows that 43% of Haley supporters would vote for Biden! Strengthening the Haley support, 63% indicated that their minds were made up, and that their certainty had risen from only 24% in October 2023. DeSantis supporters had similar percentages: 61% in January 2024 from 31% in October 2023. Trumpers, though, are rabid in the minds-made-up contest with 88% in January from 66% in October 2023. Nonetheless, some 18% indicated that they could still be convinced to switch their allegiance. Of course, it’s likely that both DeSantis and Haley, if and when they retire from the primaries, would endorse Trump, yet their supporters might very well ignore those endorsements and vote as “GOP-Independents.”
Still Alive but Barely Kicking
Summing up, Trump won handily in Iowa, handily but not decisively. Many expected decisive. His legal problems remain. Admittedly, should the federal courts and the Supreme Court find that Trump is (1) not removable from state ballots under section 3 of the 14th Amendment, and (2) not subject to criminal prosecution, all bets against GOP voters abandoning him are off. Given Biden’s unfortunate unfavourability we may need a deus ex machina event to defeat Trump. Let us pray.