“Don’t look back. Something might be gaining on you.” Satchel Paige
With Kamala Harris now the presumptive Democratic party presidential candidate, Trump has been loudly flailing attacking her in his old familiar ways: her biracial ethnicity, her laugh, her husband. All these dreadful assaults have fallen on mostly deaf ears, except from among the MAGA/GOP elites and his campaign staff. Of course, his rabid MAGA voting bloc loves it, and view his racist, bigoted, and nonsensical outbursts as grist for the mill. They love their right-wing magician-in-chief, the one who replaces complexity with ground level simplicity.
He’s rarely tried to engage her on substantive issues, lying about what she has done (for example, she did not lead a coup d’etat against President Biden), and for what she has not done (Harris was not the “immigration czar” of the Biden administration). Most importantly, he’s lost his “go to” attack tools he used so effectively against Biden, his age, his mental acuity, and his “sleepy Joe Biden” schtick. That has stripped him nearly naked before the force that is Kamala Harris.
A new poll by Morning Consult (pay wall) suggests that Trump’s ratings have significantly fallen since Harris entered the race. When asked a battery of questions respondents shone a spotlight on Trump’s favorite line of attack on Biden:
- Health: “in good health,” Harris 71% – Trump 52%; importantly, Trump’s rating is 6 percent less than when Biden withdrew;
- Mental Acuity: “mentally fit,” Harris 64% – Trump 48%; a 5 percent drop from before Biden withdrew;
- Candidate’s Age: “too old,” Harris (59) 12% – Trump (78) 51%; 7 percent more from before Biden withdrew.
“Voters also said they were more concerned about Trump’s erratic behavior worsening with age should he retake the White House in November. Roughly 82 percent of polled voters said that Trump’s “poor decision making” and “erratic behavior” was a major concern, while roughly three-quarters of polled respondents listed his inability to communicate effectively with the American public, U.S. officials, and foreign officials, as well as a weakened perception of strength on the international stage, as other points of “major concern.” Another 49 percent and 44 percent of polled Americans described the potential onset of illness and death as major concerns, respectively.”
Markedly, Trump’s in trouble. Those single percentage point differences in a close race could flip the election to Harris. With Biden on the ticket, Trump polled across the board as the favorite, although by a few toss up percentages in the battleground states. With Harris, Trump, in a those states is now in a real horse race. And Harris has the momentum.
And note the irony here: the very same tactics Trump used against Biden may now be used by Harris against him, Trump’s age, his health, his mental acuity. Trump is arguably in a position where he may need to reach out to undecided and independent voters who have abandoned him since Harris entered the fray to bring them back into the MAGA fold. And that’s not to mention Nikki Haley’s coterie who can Harris can attract. And Trump’s bad news is America’s good news.