Tag: polls

A New Poll Indicates that Someone May Be Gaining on Trump in Areas Where He Pummeled Biden

Michael Matheron1 Comment

“Don’t look back. Something might be gaining on you.” Satchel Paige

With Kamala Harris now the presumptive Democratic party presidential candidate, Trump has been loudly flailing attacking her in his old familiar ways: her biracial ethnicity, her laugh, her husband. All these dreadful assaults have fallen on mostly deaf ears, except from among the MAGA/GOP elites and his campaign staff. Of course, his rabid MAGA voting bloc loves it, and view his racist, bigoted, and nonsensical outbursts as grist for the mill. They love their right-wing magician-in-chief, the one who replaces complexity with ground level simplicity.

He’s rarely tried to engage her on substantive issues, lying about what she has done (for example, she did not lead a coup d’etat against President Biden), and for what she has not done (Harris was not the “immigration czar” of the Biden administration). Most importantly, he’s lost his “go to” attack tools he used so effectively against Biden, his age, his mental acuity, and his “sleepy Joe Biden” schtick. That has stripped him nearly naked before the force that is Kamala Harris.

A new poll by Morning Consult (pay wall) suggests that Trump’s ratings have significantly fallen since Harris entered the race. When asked a battery of questions respondents shone a spotlight on Trump’s favorite line of attack on Biden:

  • Health:  “in good health,” Harris 71% – Trump 52%; importantly, Trump’s rating is 6 percent less than when Biden withdrew;
  • Mental Acuity:   “mentally fit,”  Harris 64% – Trump 48%; a 5 percent drop from before Biden withdrew;
  • Candidate’s Age: “too old,” Harris (59) 12% – Trump (78) 51%; 7 percent more from before Biden withdrew.

The New Republic reported:

“Voters also said they were more concerned about Trump’s erratic behavior worsening with age should he retake the White House in November. Roughly 82 percent of polled voters said that Trump’s “poor decision making” and “erratic behavior” was a major concern, while roughly three-quarters of polled respondents listed his inability to communicate effectively with the American public, U.S. officials, and foreign officials, as well as a weakened perception of strength on the international stage, as other points of “major concern.” Another 49 percent and 44 percent of polled Americans described the potential onset of illness and death as major concerns, respectively.”

Markedly, Trump’s in trouble. Those single percentage point differences in a close race could flip the election to Harris. With Biden on the ticket, Trump polled across the board as the favorite, although by a few toss up percentages in the battleground states. With Harris, Trump, in a those states is now in a real horse race. And Harris has the momentum.

And note the irony here: the very same tactics Trump used against Biden may now be used by Harris against him, Trump’s age, his health, his mental acuity. Trump is arguably in a position where he may need to reach out to undecided and independent voters who have abandoned him since Harris entered the fray to bring them back into the MAGA fold. And that’s not to mention Nikki Haley’s coterie who can Harris can attract. And Trump’s bad news is America’s good news.

This Presidential Poll May Toll Good News for Biden

Michael Matheron1 Comment

Today’s Emerson College poll, among the few more than a week after Trump’s election interference convictions, signals some good news for the Biden campaign. The poll was conducted June 4-5 among 1,000 registered voters and has a margin of error of 3%. This June 5 poll has the advantage of respondents having had a week to consider the guilty verdicts, as opposed to those polls conducted immediately after the verdict. Below is the “headline” chart (with my notes superimposed):

As for the pregnant question, during the six-weeks of the NY election fraud trial and the convictions, Trump’s strength stayed at 46%, while Biden’s rose from 43% to 45%, a hopeful sign. This is particularly meaningful when you view Trump’s meteoric rise during the Trump indictment period, from 41% to $47% as MAGAites expressed their increased support for a criminally indicted presidential candidate. Biden, though, also rose, from 42.5% to 44% during that time. If one reads the headline chart as a trend, then Trump’s supporters have remained in a flat pattern, even after the May 30 convictions when they usually react positively to Trump’s criminality. Biden’s ratings, however, rose from 43% to 45%. If indeed this is a trend then that’s the hope in hopeful because I, for one, expected this poll to indicate a burst of post-conviction enthusiasm among Trump supporters, particularly when compared to their euphoria during Trump’s indictment season. Some Trumpists have drifted – south.

Also hopeful, the trends among independent and undecided voters were meaningful. Emerson pollsters concluded:

A plurality of independents say it makes no impact (41%), while 38% are less likely to vote for Trump and 21% more likely. 58% of undecided voters say the conviction does not impact their vote; 36% less likely, 6% more likely. [Emphasis added]

The “less likely” versus the “more likely” to vote for Trump, in a likely close election, favor very much the “less likely” choice. That’s, after all, a significant voting bloc.

The next big test, the public reaction to Biden’s Proclamation on border security, now in effect, for an indeterminate time. Should this succeed in stemming the immigration tide, polling data will reflect that. The consequences may – should – move more independents and undecideds into the Biden column, but a weak Biden campaign communications office needs to step up. Bigtime.

Then, on the calendar for June 27th, comes the first debate, which ought to very much rock the presidential polling. If Biden, between now and then, continues his post-Trump conviction upward polling trend, the public may be in a psychologically friendly mood to conceivably lean toward Biden’s debate performance, especially for independents and undecideds. And should Trump act out manically and maniacally as a debater, his usual tactic, then those voters may swing even more towards Biden. Once again, from my typewriter to Goddess’s ears. . .

Nikki Haley – Stay in the Race

Michael Matheron1 Comment
I hate that guy. I endorse him fully.

With the Iowa Caucuses in the rear view mirror, tomorrow’s New Hampshire primary looms large in Nikki Haley’s political landscape. As I wrote about her results in the Iowa footrace, her showing was a bit more promising than expected, i.e., better than a drubbing. The most important result was the quick departure of Ron DeSantis back to Tallahassee and warmer climes. Of course, he endorsed Trump, and we’ll see where his votes go tomorrow, but most expect them to migrate Trumpward. I’m not so sure, as New Hampshire has its share of moderate Republicans, as vanishing a sight as icebergs in the Arctic. Haley has some support there, perhaps enough to spur her on to next month’s primaries. I’ll make a case that she ought to continue, and the results of a poll released today give me some ammunition, The Boston Globe and NBC-10 New Hampshire poll.

Of course, among 500 respondents, Trump is the first choice in the field of 24 candidates, by a wide margin. Also, importantly, with DeSantis removed from the poll’s list of contestants, this is a two person race. The poll does indicate some openings for Haley in this DeSantis-less primary, as I’ll try to sort out below.

Firstly . . .

Yet, many respondents would choose Haley as their second choice. Amazingly, though, “someone else” or “undecided” is chosen by nearly 74% of respondents as their second choice. That indicates a lot of uncertainty about who these respondents would support were Haley and Trump to drop out of the race, and most of them would be former hardcore Trump supporters. So, should Trump criminal trials begin, and a conviction follow that somehow – against his will – forces him from the race, this result would signal a wide-open GOP nomination process going forward, with “someone else” in the lead. Which GOP “someone else” would the MAGA throng coalesce around? Who is the mysterious “someone else”? DeSantis? Christie? Cruz? Where would the “undecided” respondents look?

Secondly . . .

Also, a majority of Haley supporters are not simply choosing her as an anti-Trump vote, nearly 50% chose “her for her.” Forty four percent choose her as an anti-Trump vote, and that is unlikely to change. Haley’s supporters are strong Haley supporters who are in a category who may not vote for Trump in the general election, a pre-Iowa caucuses poll which I discussed here 43% of Haley supporters would vote for Biden were Trump criminally convicted. Unsurprisingly, though, Trump respondents, are single-minded and hidebound, 93% support Trump not unlike disciples in a religious cult.

And Thirdly . . .

New Hampshire Republicans are somewhat diverse in this MAGA world, 38% identify along the Very liberal to Moderate scale, with 33.6% choosing “Moderate.” Those on the Conservative to Very conservative scale account for 58%. This explains some of Haley’s strength in this pre-primary poll. However, in Iowa a more homogenously MAGA state, 18% said they’d be less likely to support Trump in a general election if he’s convicted. I’ll not argue Trump’s support is chimeric, but the Iowa results, and I believe the upcoming New Hampshire primary results show some generally unnoticed Trump weakness, particularly were he to be convicted in one of his trials. Nikki Haley ought to continue in the primaries even if she has to limp along.