Nikki Haley – Stay in the Race

With the Iowa Caucuses in the rear view mirror, tomorrow’s New Hampshire primary looms large in Nikki Haley’s political landscape. As I wrote about her results in the Iowa footrace, her showing was a bit more promising than expected, i.e., better than a drubbing. The most important result was the quick departure of Ron DeSantis back to Tallahassee and warmer climes. Of course, he endorsed Trump, and we’ll see where his votes go tomorrow, but most expect them to migrate Trumpward. I’m not so sure, as New Hampshire has its share of moderate Republicans, as vanishing a sight as icebergs in the Arctic. Haley has some support there, perhaps enough to spur her on to next month’s primaries. I’ll make a case that she ought to continue, and the results of a poll released today give me some ammunition, The Boston Globe and NBC-10 New Hampshire poll.

Of course, among 500 respondents, Trump is the first choice in the field of 24 candidates, by a wide margin. Also, importantly, with DeSantis removed from the poll’s list of contestants, this is a two person race. The poll does indicate some openings for Haley in this DeSantis-less primary, as I’ll try to sort out below.

Firstly . . .

Yet, many respondents would choose Haley as their second choice. Amazingly, though, “someone else” or “undecided” is chosen by nearly 74% of respondents as their second choice. That indicates a lot of uncertainty about who these respondents would support were Haley and Trump to drop out of the race, and most of them would be former hardcore Trump supporters. So, should Trump criminal trials begin, and a conviction follow that somehow – against his will – forces him from the race, this result would signal a wide-open GOP nomination process going forward, with “someone else” in the lead. Which GOP “someone else” would the MAGA throng coalesce around? Who is the mysterious “someone else”? DeSantis? Christie? Cruz? Where would the “undecided” respondents look?

Secondly . . .

Also, a majority of Haley supporters are not simply choosing her as an anti-Trump vote, nearly 50% chose “her for her.” Forty four percent choose her as an anti-Trump vote, and that is unlikely to change. Haley’s supporters are strong Haley supporters who are in a category who may not vote for Trump in the general election, a pre-Iowa caucuses poll which I discussed here 43% of Haley supporters would vote for Biden were Trump criminally convicted. Unsurprisingly, though, Trump respondents, are single-minded and hidebound, 93% support Trump not unlike disciples in a religious cult.

And Thirdly . . .

New Hampshire Republicans are somewhat diverse in this MAGA world, 38% identify along the Very liberal to Moderate scale, with 33.6% choosing “Moderate.” Those on the Conservative to Very conservative scale account for 58%. This explains some of Haley’s strength in this pre-primary poll. However, in Iowa a more homogenously MAGA state, 18% said they’d be less likely to support Trump in a general election if he’s convicted. I’ll not argue Trump’s support is chimeric, but the Iowa results, and I believe the upcoming New Hampshire primary results show some generally unnoticed Trump weakness, particularly were he to be convicted in one of his trials. Nikki Haley ought to continue in the primaries even if she has to limp along.