Today’s Emerson College poll, among the few more than a week after Trump’s election interference convictions, signals some good news for the Biden campaign. The poll was conducted June 4-5 among 1,000 registered voters and has a margin of error of 3%. This June 5 poll has the advantage of respondents having had a week to consider the guilty verdicts, as opposed to those polls conducted immediately after the verdict. Below is the “headline” chart (with my notes superimposed):
As for the pregnant question, during the six-weeks of the NY election fraud trial and the convictions, Trump’s strength stayed at 46%, while Biden’s rose from 43% to 45%, a hopeful sign. This is particularly meaningful when you view Trump’s meteoric rise during the Trump indictment period, from 41% to $47% as MAGAites expressed their increased support for a criminally indicted presidential candidate. Biden, though, also rose, from 42.5% to 44% during that time. If one reads the headline chart as a trend, then Trump’s supporters have remained in a flat pattern, even after the May 30 convictions when they usually react positively to Trump’s criminality. Biden’s ratings, however, rose from 43% to 45%. If indeed this is a trend then that’s the hope in hopeful because I, for one, expected this poll to indicate a burst of post-conviction enthusiasm among Trump supporters, particularly when compared to their euphoria during Trump’s indictment season. Some Trumpists have drifted – south.
Also hopeful, the trends among independent and undecided voters were meaningful. Emerson pollsters concluded:
A plurality of independents say it makes no impact (41%), while 38% are less likely to vote for Trump and 21% more likely. 58% of undecided voters say the conviction does not impact their vote; 36% less likely, 6% more likely. [Emphasis added]
The “less likely” versus the “more likely” to vote for Trump, in a likely close election, favor very much the “less likely” choice. That’s, after all, a significant voting bloc.
The next big test, the public reaction to Biden’s Proclamation on border security, now in effect, for an indeterminate time. Should this succeed in stemming the immigration tide, polling data will reflect that. The consequences may – should – move more independents and undecideds into the Biden column, but a weak Biden campaign communications office needs to step up. Bigtime.
Then, on the calendar for June 27th, comes the first debate, which ought to very much rock the presidential polling. If Biden, between now and then, continues his post-Trump conviction upward polling trend, the public may be in a psychologically friendly mood to conceivably lean toward Biden’s debate performance, especially for independents and undecideds. And should Trump act out manically and maniacally as a debater, his usual tactic, then those voters may swing even more towards Biden. Once again, from my typewriter to Goddess’s ears. . .