Today, Donald Trump’s media company stock (DJT) continued its two week long swan dive which took on steam May 30, the day after his 34 felony convictions for NY election fraud. From that day until today at market close, DJT gave up 50% of its value to shareholders, all within 16 trading days. That’s a collapse by most anyone’s standards. The last two days were so-called high volume days where huge numbers of shares are traded as opposed to the average trend. Often, traders interpret high volume in a short time period during a stock’s downward trend, like DJT, as a “capitulation,” in other words, a signal that in the days ahead DJT may recover a portion of its losses. Nonetheless, the loss of value is considerable from May 30 through today, considerable for shareholders who sold, including Trump himself who owns more than 58% of outstanding stock, or 115 shares, which fell from approximately $5+ billion to $2.8 billion, and due to a lockup provision, described below, he was unable to sell a single share to stem the tide.
As opposed to this sour financial market news, let’s recall that Trump campaign staff, on the political side insist the 34 criminal convictions help him with his supporters who apparently consider crime to be a major task of a president. They have insisted this with every Trump foray into the legal landscape, from accusations to indictments to civil judgments to gag orders to criminal convictions. Each is a new diamond in his crown. (Their post-conviction euphoria about Trump’s election fraud trial may be misplaced with recent polls showing, for example, independent voters shying away from Trump due to his May 30 convictions.)
One trend, though, they cannot deny is the rapid decline of DJT stock post-conviction. One cause-effect test includes a proximity requirement that the effect occur close to the time of the cause. The swoon in DJT stock began precisely the morning after the jury brought in its verdict, and has continued unabated since then.
While one can’t blame Trump’s convictions entirely for DJT’s collapse, it surely was the match that lit the fire. One of those other factors was disclosed recently: Trump may disavow a promise to post his messages on Truth Social first. That now questionable promise had been an important reason that investors, well, invested. Three days ago the company said in an amended registration statement:
“If TMTG disagrees with President Donald J. Trump about the scope of his obligation to use, or first post on, Truth Social, TMTG lacks any meaningful remedy with respect to such disagreement – which could have a material adverse effect on the business and/or operations of TMTG.”
Be Not Somebody’s Pigeon
Anyone who knows anything about Trump’s business acumen and general honesty, and lack thereof, should have known that caution was uppermost; I grew up quite near New York City and followed his misadventures closely. For those investors unaware of the myth of Trump who did the slightest amount of due diligence before investing in DJT, by simply googling “Trump businessman” ought to have avoided DJT like the plague (unless, of course, one is a high flying stock picker or institutional investor looking for MAGA pigeons to feast on by shorting the stock). Call me prone to schadenfreude (go ahead!).
This big decline in DJT in the wake of the long standing MAGA investors’ excitement and confidence based primarily on viewing DJT as a stand-in for the Donald himself rather than as an investment in their and their families’ futures. The MAGA investors’ group felt like business partners! Trump, of course, knew they’d prove to be the perfect pigeons for swallowing his financial hyperbole and outrageous lies. (I’ve reported on DJT stock and outlined the problems and risks posed by DJT, see a list at the the bottom of this post.)
Schadenfreude aside, the pity is that most MAGA DJT-investing fanatics were rendered almost wholly uneducated by their state education system, particularly K-12. They support the MAGA governors, school boards, state education departments, and the GOP/MAGA legislatures that have caused this for decades. As for DJT, the evil black swan, being almost wholly uneducated himself, he glamorizes low educational levels – “I love the poorly educated!” Of course.
Trump envisions DJT as a proxy super PAC, a source of cash for personal use, campaign funds, and legal fees. Note, however, that according to the prospectus “lockdown” provision, and other SEC filing documents, Trump and other major shareholders are prohibited from, for example, selling or taking out loans against DJT stock until September 2024. Note, again, though, that a simple vote by the board is sufficient to suspend that prohibition. So, in effect, the September lockdown date is not binding, especially given who the board members are, namely, Donald Trump, Jr., Kash Patel, David Nunes, and other similar rubber stamps. If Trump exercises his ability to purchase stock after the September lockdown period, within a month of election day, to, for example, pay for an advertisement blitzkrieg, his stock sales then could cause another swan dive since he’d likely sell large amounts of DJT thus undermining DJT’s value. That would again injure MAGA investors.
Tithing for Trump!
Nevertheless, MAGAites who hold DJT stock are cult members who, I propose, view their DJT investment as a tithe, common in actual church denominations throughout the world. So, in that spirit, they’ve invested in Pastor Trump, and support his message of a bright MAGA tomorrow. It’s far less a financial investment than a spiritual one. Despite what I suggest above, they may be reticent to dump their stock during swan dive periods. That, to them, would be something of a sacrilege, an insult to Trump and to God who supports him. How much DJT stock does God own? If, as I hinted above this swan dive “capitulation” volume the last two trading days is but a prelude to a recovery rise in DJT, then apparently God is a major investor . . . stay tuned to CNBC.
__________________________________
Below are links to my other DJT posts:
Verrrrrrrrry interesting. I think you’re right again and again. The black swan is using the pigeons to fund his perfidy and crimes and coverups.