Tag: Egypt

Egypt Interior Ministry Fire: FOX News, After a Full Four-Hour Investigation, Names the Culprits, Because They Can

Michael MatheronLeave a comment

March 22, 2011

CAIRO — An Egyptian security official says police protesting in front of Egypt’s Interior Ministry have set fire to part of the downtown complex. TV footage shows flames licking up the building’s top floors and a huge plume of black smoke filling the sky. The official says protesters lit Tuesday’s fire in the building housing in the ministry’s personnel department. It then spread to an adjacent building. The fire followed a protest by thousands of low-ranking police officers calling for better wages and working conditions. Mass demonstrations that toppled former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak on Feb. 11 have set off frequent protests by laborers seeking to improve their lot.

As of 2:15 pm (EDST) the investigation of the fire at the Ministry of the Interior in Cairo concluded. FOX Newsiness announced its findings after nearly four hours of digging through its predispositions. FOX pinpointed the culprits as the “police protesters” who had assembled earlier in the day to demonstrate for better wages and living conditions. FOX positively named an unnamed Egyptian “security official” as their source. This compelled the closing of their investigation.

FOX also exposed that this latest example of criminal and civil disobedience fits within the larger conspiracy of those continuous mass demonstrations by other ungrateful “laborers seeking to improve their lot.” FOX has completed so thorough an investigation that the thousands of police and interior ministry protesters at the ministry site today will soon be apprehended and sentenced to long terms of imprisonment. For the less disobedient among them, re-education will follow so that each learns how well off one is when compared to many others, such as those lost for years in caves in the Sinai. 

Egypt: Why the Next Revolution Must Be an Economic One

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March 4, 2011

In his article The Revolution Against Neoliberalism? Dr. Walter Armbrust, University Lecturer in Modern Middle East Studies at Oxford University, speculates about the next revolution in Egypt, the economic revolution, and whether it will succeed at all. Dr. Armbrust examines Egypt’s political economy during the Mubarak era, and finds a system that relied on cronyism and a misguided and corrupt neoliberal state, one where only the well-connected were able to thrive, and thrive they did. Armbrust is highly critical of the neoliberal economy, where the so-called free market trumps all other considerations of social policy and fairness.

The following is excerpted from his article at Jadaliyya.

“. . . the real problem with the regime was not necessarily that high-ranking members of the government were thieves in an ordinary sense. They did not necessarily steal directly from the treasury. Rather they were enriched through a conflation of politics and business under the guise of privatization. This was less a violation of the system than business as usual. Mubarak’s Egypt, in a nutshell, was a quintessential neoliberal state. . .[In the neoliberal state,] guaranteeing the sanctity of markets is supposed to be the limit of legitimate state functions, and state interventions should always be subordinate to markets. All human behavior, and not just the production of goods and services, can be reduced to market transactions. And the application of utopian neoliberalism in the real world leads to deformed societies as surely as the application of utopian communism did. . .

“The only people for whom Egyptian neoliberalism worked ‘by the book’ were the most vulnerable members of society, and their experience with neoliberalism was not a pretty picture. Organised labor was fiercely suppressed. The public education and the health care systems were gutted by a combination of neglect and privatization. Much of the population suffered stagnant or falling wages relative to inflation. Official unemployment was estimated at approximately 9.4% last year (and much higher for the youth who spearheaded the January 25th Revolution), and about 20% of the population is said to live below a poverty line defined as $2 per day per person.

A Neoliberal Fix Would Be a Tragedy For the Pro-Democracy Movement

“For the wealthy, the rules were very different. Egypt did not so much shrink its public sector, as neoliberal doctrine would have it, as it reallocated public resources for the benefit of a small and already affluent elite. Privatization provided windfalls for politically well-connected individuals who could purchase state-owned assets for much less than their market value, or monopolise rents from such diverse sources as tourism and foreign aid. Huge proportions of the profits made by companies that supplied basic construction materials like steel and cement came from government contracts, a proportion of which in turn were related to aid from foreign governments. . .

“The generals [now in charge] may well prefer a new round of neoliberal witchcraft. More privatization will simply free up assets and rents that only the politically connected (including the generals) can acquire. Fixing a failed neoliberal state by more stringent applications of neoliberalism could be the surest way for them to preserve their privileges.

“A neoliberal fix would, however, be a tragedy for the pro-democracy movement. The demands of the protesters were clear and largely political: remove the regime; end the emergency law; stop state torture; hold free and fair elections. But implicit in these demands from the beginning (and decisive by the end) was an expectation of greater social and economic justice.

“. . . If the January 25th revolution results in no more than a retrenchment of neoliberalism, or even its intensification, those millions will have been cheated. The rest of the world could be cheated as well. Egypt and Tunisia are the first nations to carry out successful revolutions against neoliberal regimes. Americans could learn from Egypt. Indeed, there are signs that they already are doing so. Wisconsin teachers protesting against their governor’s attempts to remove the right to collective bargaining have carried signs equating Mubarak with their governor. Egyptians might well say to America ‘uqbalak’ (may you be the next).”

Former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak Signed for Remake of Jim Carrey’s Hit Movie “Liar Liar”

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February 12, 2011

Wish I Hadn’t Said That.  Immediately following his reelection in September 2005, Former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak gave a speech to his nation.  It’s an address he’ll surely be reminded of more than ever before considering his resignation today. Mubarak had just won reelection to a fifth term and was obviously feeling in a charitable mood. And why not?  He’d managed to attract 88.5% of the votes, while ignoring the deflating news that only 23 percent of Egyptian voters bothered to show up. In the end he garnered the votes of merely 8.6 percent of Egypt’s overall population. Oh, and yeah, the election was rigged like a 19th Century ship of the line. 

We all utter noises that later embarrass us.  A friend of mine, quoting Little Red Riding Hood, once blurted out to me, “Oh, what big ears you have!” at the precise moment when a fellow with (of course) enormous ears wheeled around the corner heading straight for us. I put my head so far down that my sternum maintained an impression of my chin for a week, but, nevertheless, I did catch a glimpse of the expression on the poor man’s face as he and his monumental ears strode past.  It made things no better when she turned quickly to yell, “Oh, I didn’t mean your ears!” I didn’t lift a finger – or my chin – to rescue her.

What’s this to do with Mubarak?  Not much, it’s a story I’ve been saving for even the slightest provocation. Mubarak provides it. My friend always regretted her words that day (although she told the story often, literally shaking with laughter). Mubarak, too, will have much to regret as well, particularly the huge whoppers in his post-election hubris-laden speech way back in September 2005. Here are the quotes that make one wince:

He dove right in with this delusional belief: “The true victory is the victory for democracy and pluralism.”

Then this one, downright clinically dishonest. Did he say this with a straight face? “I say to the young, the workers, the peasants, the intellectuals and the middle classes: I will stand by your side and support your causes and ambitions . . .”

This was nothing new. Pre-election, on August 17, 2005, in his first interview after the launch of his reelection campaign, Mubarak told Al-Ahram Weekly that, in the face of demands for international election monitors, he rejected any foreign interference in the electoral process.  Neutral election bean counters would wreck everything, although he had enough sense not to say that. Then in a verbal stunner, he went on: “Ultimately, what is right will prevail, because the Egyptian people are aware. They can make their own choices, and they know how to tell the difference between hollow slogans and my serious electoral platform . . .”

Geeze Louise!  As things turned out today with his skedaddle from Cairo and from the presidency, he’ll have time and leisure, – unless indicted for various and sundry horrific crimes – to reminisce about how he almost got away with it.

Is Egyptian Deputy Prime Minister Mohamed Tantawi aka President “Mubarak’s Poodle” to Replace Mubarak?

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February 11, 2011

“Based on the responsibility of the armed forces and its commitment to protect the people and its keenness to protect the nation… and in support of the legitimate demands of the people [the army] will continue meeting on a continuous basis to examine measures to be taken to protect the nation and its gains and the ambitions of the great Egyptian people.” Communique Number 1, Supreme Council of Egyptian Armed Forces, February 10, 2011 (meeting without President Hosni Mubarak in attendance)

Also reported: “The military’s supreme council met today without Commander-in-Chief Mubarak, and declared on state TV its “support of the legitimate demands of the people.” A spokesman read a statement that the council was in permanent session to explore “what measures and arrangements could be made to safeguard the nation, its achievements and the ambitions of its great people.” The statement was labeled “communiqué number 1,” a phrasing that suggests a military coup.

Today’s meeting was chaired by 75 year old Deputy Prime Minister Mohamed Tantawi, (appointed by Mubarak on Jan. 31, 2011). He chaired the meeting of the Supreme Council of Egyptian Armed Forces in his other, preexisting, role as Commander-In-Chief of Egypt’s armed forces. Mubarak, who, as President and Supreme Commander would normally have presided, and this, by some, implies a military coup, nonviolent though it is thus far. 

The mid-level officer corps is generally disgruntled, and one can hear mid-level officers at MOD clubs around Cairo openly expressing disdain for Tantawi. These officers refer to Tantawi as “Mubarak’s poodle,” and complain that “this incompetent Defense Minister” who reached his position only because of unwavering loyalty to Mubarak is “running the military into the ground.”

So, is Tantawi the replacement-in-waiting?

Egyptian President Mubarak Serves Red Herring to Protesters

Michael MatheronLeave a comment

 February 6, 2011

Neither Logic Nor Reality.  Thursday night’s Christiane Amanpour interview of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak gave us a revealing view of his reasoning about the popular uprising, then in its ninth day. The protests, suddenly rent with the violence of pro-Mubarak forces, brought the President out of hiding to comment. His key responses were to Amanpour’s question about his possible resignation: “If I resign today, there will be chaos. . . I was very unhappy about yesterday. I do not want to see Egyptians fighting each other. . . I don’t care what people say about me. Right now I care about my country.”

In 1927, U.S. Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis wrote, “The logic of words should yield to the logic of realities.” In his attempt to shift responsibility, President Mubarak’s comments abuse logic and ignore reality. In fact, it’s a verbal stunner, a soup of distortions that will find its way into the lexicon of modern Egyptian history.

Velvet Words, Burlap Meanings. Yet, on its first hearing, Mubarak arguably sounds resolute, steeped in affection for home and hearth. Likewise, newly minted Vice President Omar Suleiman later told Amanpour that “We always respect our president, respect our father, respect the guy who’s done as well for his country as President Mubarak has done.”  Indeed, there’s truth to Suleiman’s observation: Mubarak has a well-earned reputation for bravery in military service to Egypt; he did at some times – long past – listen to his people’s aspirations; he walked an unenviable path between Israeli mistrust and Islamic resentment. 

Now, though, Mubarak’s apparently sincere words fail to match the reality on the ground, and the regime’s part in it.  He’s ratified the harsher measures we saw on Wednesday, if not actually ordering them himself. He watched the attacks on journalists in the attempt to banish the press and isolate the protesters.  In these activities, the same enabling role is also true of Suleiman. Still and all, here they are avowing their love of all Egyptians. Where have they been the last 48 hours, the last 10 days?  Apparently not in Egypt.

It may be argued that Suleiman’s remarks about Mubarak are the wistful sentiments of a longtime colleague. Mubarak’s words and nonaction, though, throttle the truth and strongly suggest insincerity. Applying the “smell test” fails.  He’s “fed up” with the Presidency?  He just wishes that he could step down? About that, let’s note he’s been hard at work trying to deflate, discredit, and defeat the protesters for at least the past few days.  And to what purpose?  To ease his way out of the office he maintains he’s “fed up” with?  If that’s what he expected to convey during his Amanpour interview – and in his earlier speech to the nation as well – then he’s failed the “logic of realities.” If the reality on the ground is a guide, his tenure is finished (and Suleiman’s), unless he wants to be literally pushed out of office, or reduced to a dying figurehead with little or no power. He knows that. His best bet is to leave, to retirement on a Pharaoh’s pension in Sharm-el-Sheik. 

“Let Them Eat Red Herring” But let’s briefly accept that Mubarak truly is “fed up” with the presidency, then the only reason for holding onto power he’s advanced is his fear of the consequences of his leaving, his concern about “chaos.” This, however, is like throwing a coconut cream pie in a stranger’s face and then complaining that your victim’s anger has caused you emotional damage. 

Let’s face it, the chaos in Cairo, in largest part, was caused by Mubarak and his crony-heavy regime, both in an immediate and a long term sense.  Shifting the blame and changing the question is a shopworn tactic, politicians everywhere use it, it’s the screwdriver in the toolbox. We experienced it, for example, when the Bush II administration put the unprepared and inexperienced Michael Brown in charge of FEMA, and following Hurricane Katrina then asserted, “See, federal government programs don’t work!” Well, Bush and the government-hating GOP/Tea Party set it up to fail, there and elsewhere, to lend credence to their anti-governance rhetoric. A classic red herring. Given Mubarak’s record of late, particularly his collusion with the brute force that is called “pro-Mubarak,” his avowed affection for the people is, it appears, a red herring meant to fool Egyptians into sentimentally adjusting their emotions, and to buy time for Mubarak to retain his power. Hopefully, this red herring rots in the Middle Eastern sun.

SOS Egypt: Violence Begins, Thugs = Police

Michael MatheronLeave a comment

February 2, 2011

We are no longer sleeping atop a volcano.

“Thugs” = Police. This evening in Cairo a sleeping volcano erupted, spewing lava. Pro-government protesters broke the back of the past week of peaceful revolution with Molotov cocktails and men carrying whips atop camels. Presently, in Tahrir Square, anti-Mubarak demonstrators are surrounded by surging pro-Mubarak crowds, and unable to leave the square as the army stands by, presently motionless.  And then there’s this tweet a few minutes ago, as the Mubarak government tries to shift blame:

Breaking: #Egypt state TV accuses #MuslimBrotherhood of throwing fireballs at #Tahrir. CNN sees NO EVIDENCE of this.

“Thugs,” among the Egyptian people these days, means the state police and the secret security forces. It is very likely that the counter “demonstrators” are seeded with these thugs. Moreover, it is beyond any possible suspension of disbelief that this is a spontaneous outpouring of support for Mubarak. This gathering of weapons-toting thugs has been some time in the making and would have required the acquiescence of the secret police, who, after all, have proved themselves very adept at rooting out opposition parties and individuals.  This “demonstration” required exacting preparation.  And where was Mubarak? And, especially, where was Vice President Omar Suleiman? He’s not without interest here since he was the head of the Mukhabarat, or General Intelligence Directorate; Suleiman was Mubarak’s go-to man for spying, torturing, misinforming, and disrupting.

What Next?  Frankly, it’s an absurd exercise to speculate. “What next?” includes not only Egypt but the region, note the demonstrations in Jordan, the unease in Israel, and the stirrings in Yemen. Yet, one can be sure that Mubarak himself is the only one who can decide whether Egypt burns or heals. And even that is uncertain; the revolution genie is out of the bottle, yet, Egypt without Mubarak is rife for instability. Nevertheless, if Mubarak truly loves his country, as he affirmed in last night’s speech, then the time to leave is now.

The Egyptian Military – Mubarak’s Friend or Foe?

Michael MatheronLeave a comment

January 27, 2011

Mubarak says he’ll fire govt
but people are asking for regime change
not a change in the regime!

#egypt #jan28
about 21 hours ago via Twitter for BlackBerry®

Ah, Egypt. The land of various and sundry mysteries where, this week, the newest mystery is 82-year-old President Hosni Mubarak’s future – and Egypt’s. Yesterday, in response to the riots throughout the country, Mubarak disbanded his government (exempting himself), and promised reform, hinting at promoting better living conditions, encouraging fewer horrific beatings by his police force, and rooting out corruption.

His strongest words, however, stressed that his first responsibility was to restore order, and this he did by dispatching the army to back up his police force. Punching up the police with the army would seem to provide Mubarak a modestly reliable cohort, yet news reports indicate soldiers, particularly conscripts, were doing little to control the riots, and were often on friendly terms with the demonstrators they are there to suppress and control.

This isn’t too surprising since the Egyptian all male army is largely manned by conscripts between the ages of 20 and 30. Their loyalty to Mubarak, demographically, appears to be another mystery not yet solved. Given that the average age in Egypt is 20, demographically, this young conscript army has far more in common with the rioting revolutionaries than with a leader they may consider well past his prime.

A key, perhaps the key, to this revolution – whether Mubarak stays or goes – will be the soldier in the ranks and where he places his ultimate loyalty. Will he, if ordered, fire into crowds of people more like him than like the octogenarian Mubarak and his corrupt crew? A necessarily related question arises: Will army personnel engage the police force? Both forces are massive – Egypt’s police force and army both have hundreds of thousands of actives and reserves; Egypt’s armed forces are among the larger in the world. The question of loyalties of the armed forces and the police is not merely academic, it’s strategic.

The police force, with its reputation for brutality and corruption, is widely hated, while the armed forces are generally viewed with respect. It is the police force (and the secret police) that has done the dirty work in Mubarak’s Egypt. The army, by contrast, has rarely been used for internal security – the last time was in 1986 to quash a mutiny by security forces in Cairo. Moreover, on the ground today and yesterday, individual soldiers have offered aid to demonstrators, as you’ll see in the video below.

One may also be certain that brass of the armed forces are not making decisions in an international vacuum. As the United States’ strongest ally in the region, Israel’s peace pact partner, and the recipient of $1.4 Billion in U.S. military aid this year, Egypt’s strategic importance is obvious and vital. The U.S. government, speaking through Secretary of State Clinton and the President, presently are tacking carefully through a howling headwind – no firm commitment to protect Mubarak, no commitment to explicitly ally with the protesters. The U.S. message is the usual superpower message, urging calmer heads on all sides, although asking – pleading – with Mubarak to listen carefully to his people’s grievances and to act on them.

Yet, we know how the security apparatus works, in this, and any other powerful country with a stake in virtually everything that occurs in the Middle East.  Surely, there are back channels operating here. Undoubtedly the reach all major players in this unfolding  – may we say? – revolution.  Actually, if the latest Egyptian mystery is to be decided anywhere outside of Egypt, the U.S. government would like to believe that it is here, employing the “usual suspects”  —  CIA analysts and their in-country contacts; State Department fixers and diplomats;  Pentagon warlords;  White House “special advisers this,”  “special advisers that,” and campaign 2012 prognosticators;  and, yes, Treasury officials, IMF mavens, business titans, and craven bankers. 

What will they decide that Egypt may be “allowed” to do? Are they already too late to make a difference?