“Public officials … regrettably have engaged in recent attempts to intimidate judges — for example, suggesting political bias in the judge’s adverse rulings without a credible basis for such allegations. Attempts to intimidate judges for their rulings in cases are inappropriate and should be vigorously opposed. Public officials certainly have a right to criticize the work of the judiciary, but they should be mindful that intemperance in their statements when it comes to judges may prompt dangerous reactions by others.”
This morning, Trump took once again to Truth Social for an exquisitely intelligent broadside aimed at the chief judge of the Washington, DC U.S. District Court, Judge James Boasberg for halting his efforts to remove Venezuelan migrants using the Alien Powers Act of 1798 which was intended to to resist a foreign invasion during a time of declared war. Needless to say, we are not at war with Venezuela. This upset our president who is set upon complete capture of the federal government within himself, a monarch in (impatient) waiting. He had this to say:
@realDonaldTrump
This Radical Left Lunatic of a Judge, a troublemaker and agitator who was sadly appointed by Barack Hussein Obama, was not elected President – He didn’t WIN the popular VOTE (by a lot!), he didn’t WIN ALL SEVEN SWING STATES, he didn’t WIN 2,750 to 525 Counties, HE DIDN’T WIN ANYTHING! I WON FOR MANY REASONS, IN AN OVERWHELMING MANDATE, BUT FIGHTING ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION MAY HAVE BEEN THE NUMBER ONE REASON FOR THIS HISTORIC VICTORY. I’m just doing what the VOTERS wanted me to do. This judge, like many of the Crooked Judges’ I am forced to appear before, should be IMPEACHED!!! WE DON’T WANT VICIOUS, VIOLENT, AND DEMENTED CRIMINALS, MANY OF THEM DERANGED MURDERERS, IN OUR COUNTRY. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!! Mar 18, 2025, 9:05 AM
Trump’s beef? (1) Judge Boasberg was appointed by President Obama, (2) Judge Boasberg did not perform better that Trump in the 2024 election, (3) Judge Boasberg is a crooked judge, “a troublemaker and agitator,” and, as a consequence, the judge ought to be impeached, primarily for doing his job and interpreting the law in a manner consistent with precedent.
The rule of law laid down in judicial impeachment cases has been that judges cannot be removed for decisions that the president disagrees with. Impeachment of judges is an unlikely event in American history: 15 judges have been impeached, 8 convicted and removed. Impeachment and removal has ranged from intoxication on the bench, to abandoning the office and joining the Confederacy, to various types of corruption, and to perjury and income tax evasion, all of which arguably fit the normal impeachment standard of high crimes and misdemeanors for executive branch impeachments.*
* [But see this for more complete background: within the judicial branch “good behavior” clause of Article 3, there may be some argument that Trumpists may make to the effect that Judge Boasberg violated the good behavior clause (believe it or not) by simply ruling against Trump. The background of this good behavior clause makes it unrealistic to believe that such an argument would be considered as anything other than frivolous, however.]
In any event, the important conclusion in this crucial case is that Trump’s reaction shows clearly (1) his complete lack of basic understanding of the American constitutional system, particularly the judiciary, and (2) his knee jerk reaction to pulverize the reputation of any judge that disciplines him, (3) his utter contempt – utter demented contempt – for law, in general, and anything untoward that affects him adversely, and (4) his descent into uncontrolled all caps madness unlike anything witnessed in his first presidential term.
This battle between Trump administration and the courts represents, potentially, the most important on display since without Trump accepting court rulings the American government loses its principal foundation, judicial supremacy in judicial matters. Absent that, the jungle awaits . . .
__________________
UPDATE: Just prior to my posting this it’s been reported that in a very unusual pronouncement, the Supreme Court Chief Justice, John Roberts, issued the following:
“For more than two centuries, it has been established that impeachment is not an appropriate response to disagreement concerning a judicial decision. The normal appellate review process exists for that purpose.”
Given the highly unusual statement by the Chief Justice, its import cannot be underestimated. We’ll likely see, in its wake, MAGA world completely “cancel” the Chief Justice, and Trump say something that makes the situation worse.
“We have inflation at a level we’ve never had before.” Donald Trump, News Conference, January 7, 2025
Inflation today is at 2.7%. Historically speaking (and-in-every-other way speaking) the rate of inflation that Trump inherits from President Biden is gobsmackingly below “a level we’ve never seen before.” [Note: Whenever Trump uses the phrase “a level we’ve never seen before” he is – in order of precedence- either lying, or unaware/uneducated about the topic, or in a Diet Coke induced trance. Of course, all three a simultaneously possible.]
Without much need for explanation, see the chart below. In the mid-1900s during the First World War the highest inflation rate is at its 100 year record high (20%). Then, along came World War 2 and another series of backbreaking inflation rates. The 1970s-early 1980s brought high inflation due primarily to the Arab Oil Boycott, the Iranian revolution, and “stagflation” (characterized by high inflation, low economic growth, and high unemployment). Since the 1990s, however, inflation has been somewhat tame, and in the 2000s mostly below 2.5% (which is generally the Federal Reserve’s “target rate”).
Trump’s “highest inflation” view of things is as fabricated as anything he’s, well, ever fabricated. He used it successfully though; pounding on that theme on the campaign trail constantly. Polling found that high inflation was among the strongest reasons he succeeded in 2024. In fact, though, from 2010 inflation has been a pussy cat. Yet, at today’s press conference Trump still cannot let go of his upside-down view of inflation, unless he was referring to the historic high of his own rate of dishonesty . . .
Trump has been ranting lately, most notably in his debate with Kamala Harris, that Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Missouri are “eating the dogs, the people who came in, they’re eating the cats.” This most recent of Trump’s immigration fables turns out to be balderdash, of course. And, as usual, MAGA enthusiasts have fallen for it, disbelieving the reports exonerating Haitians, apparently dismissing JD Vance’s admission that he, who first reported this imaginary story, had made it all up, unapologetically.
In any event, an enterprising group of Tik Tok users employed AI to discover that Trump had plagiarized his comment about the Haitian-dog-cat controversy directly from one of Adolf Hitler’s speeches. He too was vexed by immigration, especially from Haiti whose citizens yearned for peaceful and bountiful lives in Nazi Germany, and of course, for the wiener schnitzel and beer. Below is the sordid proof of Trump’s plagiarism:
Whether Trump will face disciplinary action, or criminal indictment for his flagrant infringement of Adolf Hitler’s copyright is the question of the day. He certainly has violated Hitler’s rights to ownership of his own words. Plagiarism, as defined, can be considered a violation of copyright law if it infringes on the original author’s copyright, patent, or trademark. In this case, the copyright owner can sue the plagiarist in federal court.
Adolf Hitler. age 135, with his lawyers in Brasília.
Also, in some cases, plagiarism can be considered a felony under state or federal law. For example, if a plagiarist copies and earns more than $2,500 from copyrighted material, he/she may face up to $250,000 in fines and up to ten years in jail. The value of Trump’s use of Hitler’s words could be determined to be in excess of $2,500 as it has brought him value due to the absolute delight that MAGA supporters drew from attack on immigrants (the Springfield Haitians, by the way, are in the United States legally). Also, Trump continues to use the phrase at the drop of a hat.
Whether this event will draw Adolf Hitler out of retirement in Brazil to bring suit, or to make a criminal complaint remains to be seen. He has been understandably reclusive for the past 79 years. It will be interesting to see, because it isn’t wise to aggravate Adolf Hitler. My money’s on Hitler.
At a campaign rally yesterday in Pennsylvania, Trump tried to pander to women voters, disastrously, that he’s not a threat but will be their “protector” in abortion matters, and in general:
“I always thought women liked me. But the fake news keeps saying women don’t like me. [But] You will be protected, and I will be your protector. Women will be happy, healthy, confident and free. You will no longer be thinking about abortion.”
The president who ushered in the overturning of Roe v. Wade, bragged about sexually assaulting women, and was found liable for sexual abuse now realizes that the legacy of the Dobbs decision that his three Supreme Court nominees made possible isn’t polling well. So he’s on the reassurance grift. There is a mind-set demonstrated by his “soothing” words that shows a glaringly stupid lack of understanding of even the grade school basics of what women desire in all aspects of their lives, especially abortion.
For example, his “You will be protected, and I will be your protector”: women no longer accept (if they ever did) that their relationships with men be a “protector/protectee” paternalistic bargain, freighted with exceedingly onerous obligations. For example, Trump (of all men) telling them “Women will be happy, healthy, confident and free” indicates his belief that men (specifically himself) alone by their paternalistic largesse can make women happy, healthy, confident and free. This, from Trump, a serial sex assaulter, adulterer, adjudicated rapist, defamer, and “pussy grabber.” He and the MAGA crowd simply have no overall, historical, cultural, or conceptual understanding of feminist goals. And trying to fake it just digs them in deeper and rightly alienates millions of women, and men.
And there’s this:
More Reassurance from Ohio…
GOP Senate nominee Bernie Moreno (OH), at a town hall event last week but first reported yesterday by NBC4 in Columbus. As you’ll see, Moreno vocalizes the MAGA self-centered view that one’s vote ought to matter only when an issue DIRECTLY threatens one’sown life, not, for example, the lives of all women, including their daughters and granddaughters.
“You know, the left has a lot of single issue voters. Sadly, by the way, there’s a lot of suburban women, a lot of suburban women that are like, ‘Listen, abortion is it. If I can’t have an abortion in this country whenever I want, I will vote for anybody else.’ … OK. It’s a little crazy by the way, but — especially for women that are like past 50 — I’m thinking to myself, ‘I don’t think that’s an issue for you.'”
As for Trump’s conclusion, “[Women] will no longer be thinking about abortion,” the absurdity of that in every way spotlights his utter lack of understanding of women’s daily lives. Women walk through life with targets on their chests and backs, at all ages, placed there by men like Trump and Moreno.
Trump’s Truth Social post following his very bad day started out well enough. If one was hoping for some jib to humanization, his first phrases hinted at something we’ve never witnessed before from his postings, a sense of the moment and a call for sincere unification: “As we move forward in Uniting our Nation after the horrific events on Saturday, this dismissal of the Lawless Indictment in Florida should be just the first step, followed quickly by . . .” He apparently exhausted himself with the effort:
As we move forward in Uniting our Nation after the horrific events on Saturday, this dismissal of the Lawless Indictment in Florida should be just the first step, followed quickly by the dismissal of ALL the Witch Hunts — The January 6th Hoax in Washington, D.C., the Manhattan D.A.’s Zombie Case, the New York A.G. Scam, Fake Claims about a woman I never met (a decades old photo in a line with her then husband does not count), and the Georgia “Perfect” Phone Call charges. The Democrat Justice Department coordinated ALL of these Political Attacks, which are an Election Interference conspiracy against Joe Biden’s Political Opponent, ME. Let us come together to END all Weaponization of our Justice System, and Make America Great Again!
@realDonaldTrump Donald Trump Truth Social 10:41 AM EST 07/15/24
We should not be surprised. He’s a singularity, an irresistible force, immune from everyday – decent – emotions. It would’ve been an apt time to follow up on his opening unification theme, but we learned that he’s immovable as he jumped immediately and immodestly from “move forward in Uniting our Nation” to hisidea of unification. His sense of national unification is self-referential only. His list of unifying prerequisites is entirely so, for example, his usual list, “dismissal of the Lawless Indictment in Florida should be just the first step, followed quickly by the dismissal of ALL the Witch Hunts — The January 6th Hoax in Washington, D.C.” and on and on. Being shot apparently doesn’t move him to self-examination, no sitting humbly before death. How empty must he be?
In a stunning irony, at the end of his cris de coeur he wrote, “Let us come together to END all Weaponization of our Justice System.” Yet, there is no mention of the weaponization of our society, and at a moment when he must still have felt the sting of the gunshot and the sensed the whizz of the bullet from one of those very real weapons. The only weaponization he cares about, deeply, is the judicial weapon aimed at himself in a land where accountability is still – if only barely – holding on.
“District Attorney = Democrat Prosecutor = donated to Biden in 2020 = Prosecutor = paid by the DNC, former Biden DOJ official = Jury = pulled from one of the most liberal areas = Judge, donated to Biden in 2020 = Trial and Conviction = total sham” Twitter/X May 31, 2024, MAGA & causation expert Rep. Russell Fry, R SC-District 6, immediately after Trump’s 34 NY felony convictions
As you can see above, first term backbench GOP/MAGA congressman Russell Fry had his dander up on May 31st, one day after Trump was convicted of 34 felonies. He torched the usual MAGA suspects: the District Attorney, the prosecutor, the jury, and, as a result, the 34 convictions.
And. as we’ll see after the next section, in April of 2023 Fry began to take on the federal criminal procedure that disallowed Trump from removing his election fraud case from New York to a federal District Court. His bill, H.R. 2553, has been percolating since then and, significantly, was reported out of the Judiciary Committee in January 2024 onto the House Calendar. It’s shyly named, “No More Political Prosecutions Act of 2023”. It’s important and potentially game changing.
But first, and briefly . . .
For a Backbencher He’s Got Front Bench Chutzpah
Fry is a typical MAGA extremist, beloved of Donald Trump. He describes himself on Twitter/X as: “Husband. Dad. Sock game on point. 8th grade ping pong champ. Fmr Chief Whip in SC House. #AmericaFirst. Trump Endorsed.” And there’s more than just sock game on point to please him.
His voting record for his first 19 months in Congress is rated as highly as the most MAGA Republicans in the House. He’s earned a 94% from the maniacal Heritage Foundation (the average House Republican garners an 745% rating). The Freedom Index has him at 90%, and for comparison, madman Jim Jeffords is at 80% and the equally mad Speaker of the House is at 73%). So, you know who we’re dealing with here . . . If you need any more info, there’s this: He received the Award for Conservative Excellence from the infamous The Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC). He liked that: “It is an honor to receive the Award for Conservative Excellence and be rated among the top 10% of the most conservative members of Congress. I will never stop fighting for conservative wins in Washington!” In short, he’s a MAGA doozy, thinking erroneously that he’s a “conservative,” when he’s a MAGA bomb thrower. And he seems to be a MAGA up and comer, especially given his bill’s success, No More Political Prosecutions Act of 2023, now on the House Union Calendar.
The No More Political Prosecutions Act of 2023
On April 11, 2023, Fry introduced H.R. 2553 and referred to which was referred to the House Judiciary Committee, chaired by the MAGA star and irritant Jim Jordan. Fry’s website described the bill,
“Congressman Russell Fry (SC-07) has introduced the No More Political Prosecutions Act, legislation that would give Presidents and Vice Presidents, both former and current, the option to move their own civil or criminal cases from a state court to a federal court. Presidents and Vice Presidents are among the most visible politicians in the United States government — making them a target for rogue prosecutors looking to build up their profile and make a name for themselves on the political stage. Because of that threat, it’s important for Presidents and Vice Presidents to have the option to move their case to a federal court — where judges are confirmed by the U.S. Senate, serve in their role for life, and don’t need to win an election to keep their position.
‘I’m proud to introduce the No More Political Prosecutions Act. Politically motivated prosecutors should not be able to wield unwarranted power and target our nation’s top leaders for their own personal gain. This legislation will prevent the political prosecutions of Presidents and Vice Presidents and thwart corrupt prosecutors’ agendas.’” [Emphasis in original]
28 U.S. Code § 1442 – Federal officers or agencies sued or prosecuted
(a) A civil action or criminal prosecution that is commenced in a State court and that is against or directed to any of the following may be removed by them to the district court of the United States for the district and division embracing the place wherein it is pending: (1) The United States or any agency thereof or any officer (or any person acting under that officer) of the United States or of any agency thereof, in an official or individual capacity, for or relating to any act under color of such office or on account of any right, title or authority claimed under any Act of Congress for the apprehension or punishment of criminals or the collection of the revenue. (2) A property holder whose title is derived from any such officer, where such action or prosecution affects the validity of any law of the United States. (3) Any officer of the courts of the United States, for or relating to any act under color of office or in the performance of his duties. (4) Any officer of either House of Congress, for or relating to any act in the discharge of his official duty under an order of such House; (5) The President or Vice President, or a former President or Vice President. [Emphasis added]
(b) Application.—The amendments made by subsection (a) shall apply to civil actions or criminal prosecutions pending on the date of enactment of this Act or commenced on or after such date. [Emphasis added]”
The Donald Trump Legislation Machine
Fortunately, this legislative proposal, which is among many MAGA/GOP ideas specifically designed to protect Donald Trump from accountability, languishes on the House Calendar; let’s hope it stays that way. It’s another super-partisan example of the extent to which MAGA politicos go to subvert the very idea of creating laws of general applicability. The No More Political Prosecutions Act was introduced in January 2024, two months before Trump’s New York state criminal trial began, a trial that Trump, in 2023, tried to remove from state court to federal court where his team believed he’d fare better than in New York’s state court. This attempted movement is not illegal or even underhanded, it is an attempt at what is labeled forum shopping and is subject to complex removal rules.
Trump averred that the federal district court had subject matter jurisdiction because he was charged “for conduct committed while he was President of the United States that was within the ‘color of his office,'” and that the charges involved both federal and state election law violations about which the state election law was preempted by federal law, and thus ought to be removed to federal court. U.S. District Judge Alvin Hellerstein, who heard Trump’s removal request, denied it. POLITICO reported:
“In his written decision Wednesday [July 19, 2023], however, U.S. District Judge Alvin Hellerstein found that ‘[t]he evidence overwhelmingly suggests that the matter was a purely a personal item of the President — a cover-up of an embarrassing event. He added: “Hush money paid to an adult film star is not related to a President’s official acts. It does not reflect in any way the color of the President’s official duties.’” [Emphasis added]
As you see again, Trumpists have a very “liberal” view of official presidential acts. Don’t they see the irony in that? Of course they do. They just don’t give a damn.
In any event, Trump stayed in the New York judicial system and was crowned on the last day of May with 34 criminal convictions.
One can see, then, that Congressloon Russell Fry’s No More Political Prosecutions Act, introduced in January 2024, was then an obvious pander to Trump and for no other purpose. The bill’s language (see above) is phrased in general terms; it would be a bridge too far for even a MAGA superstar like Fry to explicitly limit the proposed legislation to Donald Trump exclusively. But for many MAGA acolytes, Trump presents a single purpose for them, to protect and defend. I have little doubt that Fry’s interest in the complexities of federal-state removal law ever burdened even a moment of thought prior to Trump’s New York indictment. He is, after all, just a water boy.
“Under Crooked Joe Biden, the world is in flames, our border is overrun, inflation is raging, Europe is in total chaos, the Middle East is exploding, Iran is emboldened, China is on the march, and the worst, most incompetent, most corrupt president in history is going to drag us into World War III.” Donald Trump, at a Racine, Wisconsin MAGA rally June 18, 2024
Donald Trump, Shut Up!
If anything presently on the horizon could ignite a “WWIII” it’s Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, an obvious observation unobserved in Trump’s quote above. If Trump is truly concerned about a worldwide conflict, and not just fear mongering, then a solution to the Ukrainian-Russian war is essential. In that vein, Trump might consider calling for (1) a Russian withdrawal, (2) a Ukrainian surrender, (3) meaningful peace talks, or (4) at the least, a ceasefire. After all, the task would be a snap. He brags about how one phone call to Putin and Zelensky would lead directly to a satisfactory ending based on (Trump’s idea) Ukraine simply surrendering half of its country. Because why? Zelensky will listen to him attentively because . . . Trump’s big brain. As for Putin, he’s a buddy and totally respects Trump’s, well, his big brain. Didn’t Vlad express that respect and bonhomie in 2023?
“We surely hear that Mr. Trump says he will resolve all burning issues within several days, including the Ukrainian crisis. We cannot help but feel happy about it.” Vladimir Putin remark at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Russia, September 2023.
At the time, Trump – stupidly interpreting Putin’s cheekily ironic statement as something more than a glaringly obvious insult – jumped in with both paws, “I like that he said that, because that means what I’m saying is right. I would get him into a room. I’d get Zelensky into a room. Then I’d bring them together. And I’d have a deal worked out.” Zip, zap, zop. Just like that. After all, it’s essentially a real estate deal. Irony aside, in fact, Trump’s magical thinking, hyperbolic personality, and sense of omnipotence are dangerous threats to Ukraine’s survival, and if one needs a WWIII scenario, to the world’s survival.
And then there’s Tommy Tuberville . . .
Tommy Tuberville, Shut Up!
On another madcap front in the MAGA universe, the one where Putin is a good guy, Alabama Senator Tommy Tuberville threw in on this topic a few weeks ago. Appearing on the soon-to-be jailbird Steve Bannon’s War Room podcast, Tuberville, the nation’s stupidest senator, after referring to Volodymyr Zelensky as a “dictator,” spewed forth:
“Putin’s just kind of sitting back, watching what’s going on, wondering when y’all gonna come over and we’ll draw a line here. He doesn’t want Ukraine, he doesn’t want Europe. He’s got enough land of his own. He just wants to make sure that he does not have United States weapons in Ukraine pointing at Moscow.”
Of course, Tuberville is right that Russia doesn’t want “United States weapons in Ukraine pointing at Moscow.” Nonetheless, we can be safe in assuming that Putin knows he already has U.S. weapons pointed at him within Europe. As of April 2024, the United States had the largest number of active military personnel in NATO countries, with almost 1.33 million troops and their accompanying accoutrements like artillery, tanks, and other unpleasant things. Moreover, we have approximately 100 tactical nuclear weapons in NATO countries. And, of course, there are American “weapons pointed at him” in Ukraine because Putin invaded Ukraine, some billions of dollars worth soon to be supplemented by F-16 fighter jets. So, if Putin really doesn’t want weapons in Europe pointed at Moscow, then stop being such a juvenile delinquent; start that transformation by getting the hell out of Ukraine!
As for Tuberville’s comment that Putin “doesn’t want Ukraine, he doesn’t want Europe. He’s got enough land of his own,” the comment is belied by the fact that he has numerous soldiers, a Baltic fleet, and an air force there. So, Tuberville’s comment is not remotely reality based, it’s startlingly stupid, and other demeaning terms. Nevertheless, one part of his asinine comment bears examining, “He’s got enough land of his own.” That, too, is both incorrect and stupid, and also belied by his assault on, and occupation of, the second largest country in Europe. Apparently, Russia’s nearly seven million square miles is, Senator Tuberville, not “enough land.”
Putin desires and needs a geographical border, one that can threaten NATO, and provide an economic influx to aid Russia’s lagging economy. Economic theft was among Putin’s reasons for invading Ukraine, especially when he believed he would achieve an easy victory. Lacking that he seems stuck there for the long haul, between a rock and a hard place. Certainly, Ukraine can provide a significant economic input, for example, in 2014, he stole Crimea and grabbed its famous port city Sevastopol, a prize for his fleet. And certainly, should he own all Ukraine, his defense from NATO would be vastly strengthened, especially since, as a part of Russia, Ukraine would therefore never be a NATO country. In a strong sense, it is all about land, and wanting more, Senator Tuberville.
Trump’s Giant Brain Isn’t Up to the Task
Nevertheless, we ought to be wary of viewing Ukraine as simply a land grab by an empire-hungry Vladimir Putin. Certainly, that is a motivation; I believe his (very) long-term aim is to reform the soviet boundaries. That may, in fact, have been his initial objective, a beginning of the rebirth of a new Russian empire, modeled after the Soviet Union. If so, his failure to quickly defeat all of Ukraine has consequences, both militarily and macroeconomically, both strategically and tactically, both long term and short term. All this is a huge setback to his grand design.
Given the staggering human costs of the nearly two-year war thus far, one can see that Putin’s unmoved by the demand that he withdraw, and he will likely continue in this vein. Human and economic costs, it’s well known, are mammoth, and if the war – win, lose, or draw – were to end tomorrow, long term Russian macroeconomic costs in GDP terms are a huge concern, and these costs unabated by a swift victory, have already injured the welfare of the Russian people (an ongoing internally destabilizing event).
In December 2023, RAND Corporation reported, “As of September 2022, researchers estimated military costs reached $40 billion. Full-year 2022 gross domestic product losses amounted to between $81 billion and $104 billion and full-year financial capital destruction reached $322 billion. Direct military spending may amount to almost $132 billion through 2024.” Statista, on May 3, 2024, reported that Russia’s GDP dropped from $2.27 trillion (2022) to $1.99 trillion for 2023, a ten percent decline accounted for by both Ukraine invasion sanctions and war costs. That’s a very meaningful drop, and Russia, literally, cannot afford it given its lack of export product diversity and the many economic sanctions in place.
Of course, as far as the victim, Ukraine, is concerned, its costs are staggering, both ongoing and long term. Its 2021 its GDP dropped from $200 billion to $160 billion for 2022, a 20% decrease. It’s 2023 GDP, perhaps counterintuitively, increased due to a better harvest, additional government spending, increased defense spending, and improved electricity access (yet, recently, Russia has increased its targeting of Ukraine’s electricity infrastructure). Moreover, according to the Congressional Research Service (CRS), not surprisingly, “Ukraine, however, remains dependent on foreign assistance. According to the [International Monetary Fund] IMF, Ukraine requires in 2023 $3-4 billion in monthly financial assistance from international partners, including the [International Finance Institutions] IFIs, to maintain necessary government functions amidst the ongoing conflict. . . Other programs including the World Bank’s multi donor trust fund (MDTF) which facilitates channeling grant resources from donors. The United States is the largest donor to the MDTF, contributing $10.3 billion. Other donors are Germany ($50 million), Spain ($48 million), Finland ($21 million), Switzerland ($10.5 million), Belgium ($3 million), and Iceland ($1 million).” Foreign assistance enthusiasm may wane in a forever war, and already has in the U.S. given the GOP/MAGA warlike resistance to aiding Ukraine.
Moreover, for both combatants and the world economy, in the end, who will bear the costs of rebuilding a post-war Ukraine? Thus far, as of December 2023, the World Bank Group estimates reconstruction costs at $486 billion over the next ten years. Should Russia prevail or lose, those costs, in a legal and moral sense, ought fall to Russia, yet, if those costs continue for an extended time and reach a trillion dollars or more, Ukraine’s reconstruction will be a worldwide economic challenge, since a trillion dollars is roughly one-half Russia’s present GDP, an unsustainable drag on its economy. In any event, even should major financial institutions, countries, and non governmental organizations like the World Bank chip in, Russia’s economy will be facing large reconstruction costs that will stymie its GDP growth for an extended period. As we say, “It’s the economy, stupid!” and, despite its grievous fault, Russia cannot be allowed to sink into an economic depression, that would be destabilizing on a grand scale, i.e., a cornered bear, an existential threat to Russia, and, thereby, a certifiable World War III scenario.
So, in the end, if Trump does seek to avoid World War III, the war he accused Biden of courting, then his efforts ought to be directed at something he’s intellectually and constitutionally incapable of, for example, sensible solutions. But we know him, his diplomatic skills begin and end in this, “I would get him into a room. I’d get Zelensky into a room. Then I’d bring them together. And I’d have a deal worked out.” That is simply preposterous, the blathering of a dangerous psychopath with no conception of consequences.
Today, Donald Trump’s media company stock (DJT) continued its two week long swan dive which took on steam May 30, the day after his 34 felony convictions for NY election fraud. From that day until today at market close, DJT gave up 50% of its value to shareholders, all within 16 trading days. That’s a collapse by most anyone’s standards. The last two days were so-called high volume days where huge numbers of shares are traded as opposed to the average trend. Often, traders interpret high volume in a short time period during a stock’s downward trend, like DJT, as a “capitulation,” in other words, a signal that in the days ahead DJT may recover a portion of its losses. Nonetheless, the loss of value is considerable from May 30 through today, considerable for shareholders who sold, including Trump himself who owns more than 58% of outstanding stock, or 115 shares, which fell from approximately $5+ billion to $2.8 billion, and due to a lockup provision, described below, he was unable to sell a single share to stem the tide.
As opposed to this sour financial market news, let’s recall that Trump campaign staff, on the political side insist the 34 criminal convictions help him with his supporters who apparently consider crime to be a major task of a president. They have insisted this with every Trump foray into the legal landscape, from accusations to indictments to civil judgments to gag orders to criminal convictions. Each is a new diamond in his crown. (Their post-conviction euphoria about Trump’s election fraud trial may be misplaced with recent polls showing, for example, independent voters shying away from Trump due to his May 30 convictions.)
One trend, though, they cannot deny is the rapid decline of DJT stock post-conviction. One cause-effect test includes a proximity requirement that the effect occur close to the time of the cause. The swoon in DJT stock began precisely the morning after the jury brought in its verdict, and has continued unabated since then.
While one can’t blame Trump’s convictions entirely for DJT’s collapse, it surely was the match that lit the fire. One of those other factors was disclosed recently: Trump may disavow a promise to post his messages on Truth Social first. That now questionable promise had been an important reason that investors, well, invested. Three days ago the company said in an amended registration statement:
“If TMTG disagrees with President Donald J. Trump about the scope of his obligation to use, or first post on, Truth Social, TMTG lacks any meaningful remedy with respect to such disagreement – which could have a material adverse effect on the business and/or operations of TMTG.”
Be Not Somebody’s Pigeon
Anyone who knows anything about Trump’s business acumen and general honesty, and lack thereof, should have known that caution was uppermost; I grew up quite near New York City and followed his misadventures closely. For those investors unaware of the myth of Trump who did the slightest amount of due diligence before investing in DJT, by simply googling “Trump businessman” ought to have avoided DJT like the plague (unless, of course, one is a high flying stock picker or institutional investor looking for MAGA pigeons to feast on by shorting the stock). Call me prone to schadenfreude (go ahead!).
This big decline in DJT in the wake of the long standing MAGA investors’ excitement and confidence based primarily on viewing DJT as a stand-in for the Donald himself rather than as an investment in their and their families’ futures. The MAGA investors’ group felt like business partners! Trump, of course, knew they’d prove to be the perfect pigeons for swallowing his financial hyperbole and outrageous lies. (I’ve reported on DJT stock and outlined the problems and risks posed by DJT, see a list at the the bottom of this post.)
Schadenfreude aside, the pity is that most MAGA DJT-investing fanatics were rendered almost wholly uneducated by their state education system, particularly K-12. They support the MAGA governors, school boards, state education departments, and the GOP/MAGA legislatures that have caused this for decades. As for DJT, the evil black swan, being almost wholly uneducated himself, he glamorizes low educational levels – “I love the poorly educated!” Of course.
Trump envisions DJT as a proxy super PAC, a source of cash for personal use, campaign funds, and legal fees. Note, however, that according to the prospectus “lockdown” provision, and other SEC filing documents, Trump and other major shareholders are prohibited from, for example, selling or taking out loans against DJT stock until September 2024. Note, again, though, that a simple vote by the board is sufficient to suspend that prohibition. So, in effect, the September lockdown date is not binding, especially given who the board members are, namely, Donald Trump, Jr., Kash Patel, David Nunes, and other similar rubber stamps. If Trump exercises his ability to purchase stock after the September lockdown period, within a month of election day, to, for example, pay for an advertisement blitzkrieg, his stock sales then could cause another swan dive since he’d likely sell large amounts of DJT thus undermining DJT’s value. That would again injure MAGA investors.
Tithing for Trump!
Nevertheless, MAGAites who hold DJT stock are cult members who, I propose, view their DJT investment as a tithe, common in actual church denominations throughout the world. So, in that spirit, they’ve invested in Pastor Trump, and support his message of a bright MAGA tomorrow. It’s far less a financial investment than a spiritual one. Despite what I suggest above, they may be reticent to dump their stock during swan dive periods. That, to them, would be something of a sacrilege, an insult to Trump and to God who supports him. How much DJT stock does God own? If, as I hinted above this swan dive “capitulation” volume the last two trading days is but a prelude to a recovery rise in DJT, then apparently God is a major investor . . . stay tuned to CNBC.
A week ago, Trump took to his Truth Social safe space to make a specious claim about a problem vexing millions of diabetic Americans on Medicare, the out-of-pocket/copay cost of insulin, one of the more contentious political issues of the day, especially since Medicare beneficiaries comprise a population with higher prevalence of diabetes (33%, 22 million) than the general population (11%, 37 million). More than three million people with Medicare coverage use insulin.
So, let us ask of the man who spent much of his administration trying to repeal the Affordable Health Care Act, “What would a serious and informed policy disagreement about Medicare and insulin coverage be without Donald Trump?” Asked and answered last Saturday:
“Low INSULIN PRICING was gotten for millions of Americans by me, and the Trump Administration, not by Crooked Joe Biden. He had NOTHING to do with it. It was all done long before he so sadly entered office. All he does is try to take credit for things done by others, in this case, ME!”Truth Social, June 8, 2024
This is firstly, stupid, and secondly, nonresponsive, simultaneously both false and true, a hallmark of Trump & Company. It’s a technique that confuses those who do not follow the ins-and-outs of government policy, and many who do follow it. Trump’s Truth Social post conflates outright lying with some actual facts that, on analysis, are, indeed, truthful, but that don’t advance Trump’s argument. Given that, his argument is iconically specious, i.e., apparently good or right though lacking real merit; superficially pleasing or plausible. So, let’s dig in and deconstruct.
Trump Administration’s Half-Baked Accomplishment
“I don’t use insulin, Should I be? Huh? I never thought about it. But I know a lot of people are very badly affected, right? Unbelievable.” Donald Trump, a nondiabetic, displaying his advanced knowledge of the subject USA Today, May 26, 2020
The above crackpot quote was served up by then President Trump at a May 26, 2020 formal White House Rose Garden speech about, among other things, an executive action reducing the copay cost of insulin to $35 for Medicare recipients. Here’s the summary excerpt from the White House (ironically named) Fact Sheet released during that Rose Garden speech:
LOWERING COST OF INSULIN FOR SENIORS: President Donald J. Trump and his Administration are lowering out-of-pocket insulin costs for Medicare’s seniors.
“Under President Trump’s leadership, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services is announcing that many Medicare Part D plans and Medicare Advantage plans have applied to offer lower out-of-pocket insulin costs to seniors for the 2021 plan year.
Across the Nation, participating enhanced Part D plans will provide many seniors with Medicare access to a broad set of insulins at a maximum $35 copay for a month’s supply of each type of insulin.
And,
Lowering out-of-pocket insulin costs will provide the many Medicare beneficiaries who rely on one or more common forms of insulin with plan options that will deliver critical relief.
And,
No effort will be spared to give America’s seniors the care and support and devotion and love they have earned and that they deserve.President Donald J. Trump, March 26, 2020
In fact, rather than sparing no efforts, Trump administration’s policy spared many efforts. Unrevealed was that the cost cap would apply to only a small subsetof 3.5 million insulin-dependent Medicare beneficiaries, and they were still stuck with a yearly deductible. That’s a big “unreveal” that affected many. Nonetheless, the Fact Sheet excerpt reads as if all insulin-dependent Medicare beneficiaries would receive the new copay cost cap. So, factually, Trump’s policy did lower insulin costs, but despite being presented as a cure-all for Medicare patients, it was misleadingly presented, ergo, factual but largely false since so many on Medicare were left out.
For Trump, even this half-baked policy was something he didn’t want to establish, nor did the pharmaceutical CEOs, or insulin suppliers who colluded with him design it as anything more than a sop to the Medicare voting bloc. Trump had been suffering some blowback on the issue and needed something that he knew he could sell as a major accomplishment to his diabetic MAGA Medicare recipients (many of whom were excluded from the insulin cap). Nonetheless, at a 2020 presidential debate Trump boasted that lowered insulin prices that vials were “so cheap, it’s like water”, despite insulin prices remaining fixed at about $300 per vial. And that wasn’t misleading, that was 100% false.
The Biden Administration’s Meaningful Accomplishment
Jump forward from the Trump administration’s weak insulin copay cost policy to today. President Biden achieved much when he signed the August 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. Among those achievements was a new insulin copay cap program (effective date January 1, 2023 for Medicare Part D, and July 1, 2023 for Medicare Part B). Also, as of January 1, 2024, eligibility for the Part D Low Income Subsidy (LIS) expanded from 135 percent of the Federal Poverty Level (FPL) to 150 percent of FPL, which allows these enrollees to further reduce their out-of-pocket costs for insulin. Also, under the Inflation Reduction Act, beginning in plan year 2023 (Jan-Dec), Medicare Part D enrollees no longer may have a deductible for insulin and must have a maximum $35 monthly co-payment. These are broad and meaningful benefits, rather than – as Trump’s 2020 executive action was – a simply cynical political expedient to attempt to silence critics by, basically, confusing them. (Note, however, as always, Senate Republicans tried to block the $35 cap on price of insulin from the Inflation Reduction Act.)
KEY POINTS • The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) caps insulin out-of-pocket spending at $35 per month’s supply of each insulin product covered under a Medicare Part D plan, with similar limits for out-of-pocket costs for insulin supplied under Part B, and reduces out-of-pocket drug spending in Medicare in other ways. . . . [Omitted — States that the study used data below based upon analysis of 2019 data] • Nationally, [during 2019, Trump administration] the average out-of-pocket cost was $58 per insulin fill, typically for a 30-day supply. The average cost per fill among people who were uninsured for the entire year was $123, more than double the national average. Patients with private insurance or Medicare paid about $63 per fill on average. • [During 2019] About 37 percent of insulin fills for Medicare enrollees (Part B and Part D) required cost-sharing exceeding $35 per fill, including 24 percent that exceeded $70 per fill. About 36 percent of insulin fills for people without insurance and 35 percent for people with private insurance had cost sharing above $35 per fill. These estimates are only for enrollees who filled an insulin prescription and do not include potential costs for patients who did not fill their insulin due to cost or other reasons. • We estimate that 1.5 million Medicare beneficiaries would have benefited from the new [Inflation Reduction Act] insulin cost-sharing limits if they had been in effect [during] 2020, [rather than Trump’s policy] with savings to those beneficiaries of about $734 million in Part D and $27 million in Part B – or approximately $500 in average annual savings per person among those benefiting from the provision. [Emphasis added]
The Trump plan lacked coverage for millions of Medicare insulin users. The Inflation Reduction Act remedied that.
Jump Forward to . . . Last Saturday & Donald Trump
Yes, this again:
“Low INSULIN PRICING was gotten for millions of Americans by me, and the Trump Administration, not by Crooked Joe Biden. He had NOTHING to do with it. It was all done long before he so sadly entered office. All he does is try to take credit for things done by others, in this case, ME!” Truth Social post, June 8, 2024
Why now, why this spirited defense? The closeness of the 2024 election, in time and in winning margin, sespite Trump’s overwhelming confidence, he may have been alerted to the fact that today’s seniors, particularly baby boomers over 64, are not majority GOP voters seniors as we’ve assumed. And Trump relies on them, and trusts them to support him, and boomers now represent 60+% of the senior vote. More conservative or radical voters have died since the 2016 and 2020 elections at a greater number than baby boomers have joined the senior voting bloc. An April 26 NYT article succinctly summed it up:
“Mr. Biden’s strength among seniors might be surprising, but the likeliest explanation is deceptively simple: At every stage earlier in their lives, many of today’s seniors voted Democratic. They just got older.”
As a 74 year-old baby boomer I unanimously agree. (I’m also a diabetic who once used insulin and now use Ozempic exclusively: O! O! O! Ozempic!) Given the millions of Medicare insulin-dependent patients, insulin costs – Trump may have learned is a salient issue in the presidential race and as the chart below suggests, the blue seniors still retain their leftie reputation:
And since the 2012 election, much has changed. Baby boomers could decide the 2024 election, although Gen Z voters appear to be trending more conservative/MAGA, older voters vote in greater percentage terms than younger ones. Therefore, if not Trump himself, then it’s likely someone in the Trump campaign alerted him that the Medicare voting bloc was at risk, not only on general issues, but on pocketbook issues like the Medicare insulin cap. It’s unlikely, however, that many approved of his outlandish June 8th tweet and the blowback that established how cynical and untrue it was. We baby boomers aren’t babies anymore and we are still predominantly hippies . . .
